Journal cover Journal topic
Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Clim. Past, 5, 1-12, 2009
http://www.clim-past.net/5/1/2009/
doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
 
21 Jan 2009
Western Europe is warming much faster than expected
G. J. van Oldenborgh1, S. Drijfhout1, A. van Ulden1, R. Haarsma1, A. Sterl1, C. Severijns1, W. Hazeleger1, and H. Dijkstra2 1KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut), De Bilt, The Netherlands
2Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, The Netherlands
Abstract. The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to now could not be verified directly to observations on a local scale, because the signal-to-noise ratio was too low. The observed temperature trend in western Europe over the last decades appears much stronger than simulated by state-of-the-art GCMs. The difference is very unlikely due to random fluctuations, either in fast weather processes or in decadal climate fluctuations. In winter and spring, changes in atmospheric circulation are important; in spring and summer changes in soil moisture and cloud cover. A misrepresentation of the North Atlantic Current affects trends along the coast. Many of these processes ontinue to affect trends in projections for the 21st century. This implies that climate predictions for western Europe probably underestimate the effects of anthropogenic climate change.

Citation: van Oldenborgh, G. J., Drijfhout, S., van Ulden, A., Haarsma, R., Sterl, A., Severijns, C., Hazeleger, W., and Dijkstra, H.: Western Europe is warming much faster than expected, Clim. Past, 5, 1-12, doi:10.5194/cp-5-1-2009, 2009.
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