<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="no"?>
<!DOCTYPE article SYSTEM "http://www.clim-past.net/inc/cp/copernicus.dtd">
<article language="en">
	<journal>
		<journal_title>Climate of the Past</journal_title>
		<journal_url>www.clim-past.net</journal_url>
		<issn>1814-9324</issn>
		<eissn>1814-9332</eissn>
		<volume_number>6</volume_number>
		<issue_number>4</issue_number>
		<publication_year>2010</publication_year>
	</journal>
	<doi>10.5194/cp-6-525-2010</doi>
	<article_url>http://www.clim-past.net/6/525/2010/</article_url>
	<abstract_html>http://www.clim-past.net/6/525/2010/cp-6-525-2010.html</abstract_html>
	<fulltext_pdf>http://www.clim-past.net/6/525/2010/cp-6-525-2010.pdf</fulltext_pdf>
	<start_page>525</start_page>
	<end_page>530</end_page>
	<publication_date>2010-08-24</publication_date>
	<article_title content_type="html">Climate change and the demise of Minoan civilization</article_title>
	<authors>
		<author numeration="1" affiliations="1">
			<name>A. A. Tsonis</name>
			<email>aatsonis@uwm.edu</email>
		</author>
		<author numeration="2" affiliations="1">
			<name>K. L. Swanson</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="3" affiliations="2">
			<name>G. Sugihara</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="4" affiliations="3">
			<name>P. A. Tsonis</name>
		</author>
	</authors>
	<affiliations>
		<affiliation numeration="1" content_type="html">Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences Group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="2" content_type="html">Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0202, USA</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="3" content_type="html">Department of Biology, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 45469, USA</affiliation>
	</affiliations>
	<abstract content_type="html">Climate change has been implicated
in the success and downfall of several ancient civilizations. Here we
present a synthesis of historical, climatic, and geological evidence that
supports the hypothesis that climate change may have been responsible for
the slow demise of Minoan civilization. Using proxy ENSO and precipitation
reconstruction data in the period 1650–1980 we present empirical and
quantitative evidence that El Nino causes drier conditions in the area of
Crete. This result is supported by modern data analysis as well as by model
simulations. Though not very strong, the ENSO-Mediterranean drying signal
appears to be robust, and its overall effect was accentuated by a series of
unusually strong and long-lasting El Nino events during the time of the
Minoan decline. Indeed, a change in the dynamics of the El
Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system occurred around 3000 BC, which
culminated in a series of strong and frequent El Nino events
starting at about 1450 BC and lasting for several centuries. This stressful
climatic trend, associated with the gradual demise of the Minoans, is argued
to be an important force acting in the downfall of this classic and
long-lived civilization.</abstract>
	<references>
		<reference numeration="1" content_type="text"> Bronnimann, S.: Impact of El Nino-Southern oscillation on European climate, Rev. Geophys 45, RG3003, doi:10.1029/2006RG000199, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="2" content_type="text"> Callender, G.: The Minoans and the Mycenaeans: Aegean Society in the Bronze Age, Oxford University Press, UK, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="3" content_type="text"> Donnelly, J. P. and Woodruff, J. D.: Intense hurricane activity over the past 5000 years controlled by El Nino and the West African monsoon, Nature, 447, 465–468, doi:10.1038/nature05834, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="4" content_type="text"> Fraedrich, K. and Muller, K.: Climate anomalies in Europe associated with ENSO extremes, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 25–31, 1992. </reference>
		<reference numeration="5" content_type="text"> Friedrich, W. L., Kromer, B., Friedrich, M., Heinemeier, J., Pfeiffer, T., and Talamo, S.: Santorini eruption radiocarbon dated to 1627–1600 BC, Science, 312, 548, doi:10.1126/science.1125087, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="6" content_type="text"> Friedrich, W. L.: Santorini Volcano – natural history – mythology. Aarhus University Press, Denmark, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="7" content_type="text"> Hammer, C. U., Clausen, H. B., Friedrich, W. L., and Tauber, H.: The Minoan eruption of Santorini in Greece dated to 1645 BC? Nature, 328, 517–519, 1987. </reference>
		<reference numeration="8" content_type="text"> Haug, G. H., Gunther, D., Peterson, L. C., et al.: Climate and the Collapse of Mayan Civilization, Science, 299, 1731–1735, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="9" content_type="text"> Huang, J.-P., Higushi, K., and Shabbar, A.: The relationship between The North Atlantic Oscillation and El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 2701–2719, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="10" content_type="text"> Ineson, S. and Scaife, A. A.: The role of stratosphere in the European climate response to El Nino, Nat. Geosci., 2, 32–36, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="11" content_type="text"> Luterbacher, J. and Xoplaki, E.: 500-year winter temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean area and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation, in: Mediterranean Climate: Variability and Trends, edited by: Bolle, H., Springer, Berlin, 133–153, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="12" content_type="text"> Magill, C. R., Rosenmeier, M. F., Cavallari, B. J., Curtis, J. H., and Weis, H.: Reconstruction of Holocene climate variability within the central Mediterranean using lake sediments from Akrotiri Peninsula, Crete, in: Abstract Volume of the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, 5–9 December 2005, San Francisco, California, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="13" content_type="text"> Mann, M. E., Bradley, R. S., and Hughes, M. K.: Long-term variability in the El Nino Southern Oscillation and associated teleconnections, in: El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: multiscale variability and its impacts on natural ecosystems and society, edited by: Diaz, H. F. and Markgraf, V., Cambridge University Press, 321–372, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="14" content_type="text"> Manning, S. W., Ramsey, C. B., Kutschera, W., et al.: Chronology for the Aegean late Bronze Age 1700–1400 BC, Science, 312, 565–569, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="15" content_type="text"> Marinatos, S.: The Volcanic Destruction of Minoan Crete, Antiquity, 13, 425–439, 1939. </reference>
		<reference numeration="16" content_type="text"> Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693–712, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="17" content_type="text"> Mokhov, I. I. and Smirnov, D. A.: El Nino-Southern Oscillation drives North Atlantic Oscillation as revealed with nonlinear techniques from climatic indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L033708, doi:10.1029/2005GL024557, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="18" content_type="text"> Moseley, M. E.: Convergent catastrophe: Past patterns and future implications of collateral natural disasters in the Andes, in: The Angry Earth, edited by: Oliver-Smith, A. and Hoffman, S. M., Routledge, New York, 59–71, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="19" content_type="text"> Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T., and Anderson, D. M.: Variability of El Nino/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420, 162–165, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="20" content_type="text"> OrtizBevia, M., Perez-Gonzales, I., Alvarez-Garcia, F., and Gershunov, A.: Nonlinear estimation of El Nino impact on the North Atlantic winter, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2010, . </reference>
		<reference numeration="21" content_type="text"> Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: Five hundred years of gridded high resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to large-scale circulation, Clim. Dynam., 26, 387–405, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="22" content_type="text"> Rosenmeier, M. F., Magill, C. R., and Curtis, J. H.: Lake sediment records of Holocene climate variability within western Crete, Cornell University Dendrochronology and Archaeology Conference in Honor of Peter Ian Kuniholm, 3–5 November 2006, Ithaca, New York, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="23" content_type="text"> Sandweiss, D. H., Richardson, J. B., Reitz, E. J., et al.: Geoerchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years BP onset of El Nino, Science, 273, 1531–1533, 1996. </reference>
		<reference numeration="24" content_type="text"> Sandweis, D. H., Solis, R. S., Moseley, M. E., Keefer, D. K., and Ortloff, C. R.: Environmental change and economic development in coastal Peru between 5,800 and 3,600 years ago, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 1359–1363, doi/10.1073/pnas.0812645106, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="25" content_type="text"> Tsonis, A. A.: Dynamical changes in the ENSO system in the last 11000 years, Clim. Dynam., 33, 1069–1074, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0469-4, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="26" content_type="text"> Vinther, B. M., Clausen, H. B., Johnsen, S. J., et al.: A synchronized dating of three Greenland ice cores throughout the Holocene, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D13102, doi:10.1029/2005JD006921, 2006 </reference>
		<reference numeration="27" content_type="text"> Wang, G., Swanson, K. L., and Tsonis, A. A.: The pacemaker of major climate shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07708, doi:10.1029/2008GL036874, 2009. </reference>
		<reference numeration="28" content_type="text"> Wang, G. and Tsonis, A. A.: On the variability of ENSO at millennial timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17702, doi:10.1029/2008GL035092, 2008. </reference>
	</references>
</article>

