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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 10, issue 6 | Copyright
Clim. Past, 10, 2201-2213, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-2201-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 15 Dec 2014

Research article | 15 Dec 2014

Enhanced 20th-century heat transfer to the Arctic simulated in the context of climate variations over the last millennium

J. H. Jungclaus, K. Lohmann, and D. Zanchettin J. H. Jungclaus et al.
  • Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract. Oceanic heat transport variations, carried by the northward-flowing Atlantic Water, strongly influence Arctic sea-ice distribution, ocean–atmosphere exchanges, and pan-Arctic temperatures. Palaeoceanographic reconstructions from marine sediments near Fram Strait have documented a dramatic increase in Atlantic Water temperatures over the 20th century, unprecedented in the last millennium. Here we present results from Earth system model simulations that reproduce and explain the reconstructed exceptional Atlantic Water warming in Fram Strait in the 20th century in the context of natural variability during the last millennium. The associated increase in ocean heat transfer to the Arctic can be traced back to changes in the ocean circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. An interplay between a weakening overturning circulation and a strengthening subpolar gyre as a consequence of 20th-century global warming is identified as the driving mechanism for the pronounced warming along the Atlantic Water path toward the Arctic. Simulations covering the late Holocene provide a reference frame that allows us to conclude that the changes during the last century are unprecedented in the last 1150 years and that they cannot be explained by internal variability or natural forcing alone.

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Temperature reconstructions for the Atlantic Water layer in Fram Strait have previously revealed a dramatic warming during the 20th century that is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. Our study presents results from climate model simulations over the last millennium that are able to reproduce such changes and relate them to increased oceanic heat transports to the Arctic and to a re-organization of the North Atlantic ocean circulation caused by global warming.
Temperature reconstructions for the Atlantic Water layer in Fram Strait have previously revealed...
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