Articles | Volume 11, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
Research article
 | 
08 Dec 2015
Research article |  | 08 Dec 2015

Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

Z. A. Thomas, F. Kwasniok, C. A. Boulton, P. M. Cox, R. T. Jones, T. M. Lenton, and C. S. M. Turney

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Cited articles

An, Z.: The history and variability of the East Asian paleomonsoon climate, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 19, 171–187, 2000.
Ashwin, P., Wieczorek, S., Vitolo, R., and Cox, P.: Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 370, 1166–1184, 2012.
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Short summary
Using a combination of speleothem records and model simulations of the East Asian Monsoon over the penultimate glacial cycle, we search for early warning signals of past tipping points. We detect a characteristic slower response to perturbations prior to an abrupt monsoon shift at the glacial termination; however, we do not detect these signals in the preceding shifts. Our results have important implications for detecting tipping points in palaeoclimate records outside glacial terminations.