Articles | Volume 12, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1829-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1829-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Sep 2016
Research article |
| 08 Sep 2016
The effect of greenhouse gas concentrations and ice sheets on the glacial AMOC in a coupled climate model
Marlene Klockmann
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany
Uwe Mikolajewicz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Jochem Marotzke
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
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Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, 2022
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A bidirectional long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network was employed for the first time for past temperature field reconstructions. The LSTM method tested in our experiments using a limited calibration and validation dataset shows worse reconstruction skills compared to traditional reconstruction methods. However, a certain degree of reconstruction performance achieved by the nonlinear LSTM method shows that skill can be achieved even when using small samples with limited datasets.
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Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019
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Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. They are caused by massive ice discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic. In previous studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet–climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects.
Nils Weitzel, Heather Andres, Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Lukas Jonkers, Oliver Bothe, Elisa Ziegler, Thomas Kleinen, André Paul, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-865-2024, 2024
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The ability of climate models to faithfully reproduce past warming episodes is a valuable test considering potentially large future warming. We develop a new method to compare simulations of the last deglaciation with temperature reconstructions. We find that reconstructions differ more between regions than simulations, potentially due to deficiencies in the simulation design, models, or reconstructions. Our work is a promising step towards benchmarking simulations of past climate transitions.
Brooke Snoll, Ruza Ivanovic, Lauren Gregoire, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Laurie Menviel, Takashi Obase, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Chengfei He, Feng He, Marie Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Juan Muglia, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 20, 789–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-789-2024, 2024
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Geological records show rapid climate change throughout the recent deglaciation. The drivers of these changes are still misunderstood but are often attributed to shifts in the Atlantic Ocean circulation from meltwater input. A cumulative effort to understand these processes prompted numerous simulations of this period. We use these to explain the chain of events and our collective ability to simulate them. The results demonstrate the importance of the meltwater amount used in the simulation.
Marlene Klockmann, Udo von Toussaint, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 1765–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-1765-2024, 2024
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Reconstructions of climate variability before the observational period rely on climate proxies and sophisticated statistical models to link the proxy information and climate variability. Existing models tend to underestimate the true magnitude of variability, especially if the proxies contain non-climatic noise. We present and test a promising new framework for climate-index reconstructions, based on Gaussian processes, which reconstructs robust variability estimates from noisy and sparse data.
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Preprint under review for CP
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We use a comprehensive ocean model of the Mediterranean Sea to obtain the first consistent patterns of the physical-biogeochemical states for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and today. Circulation changes due to low sea level during the LGM lead to reduced net primary production, but cold temperatures depress bacterial activity, resulting in an increased flux of organic matter to the seafloor. We also discuss potential biases that occur when climate signals are collected in organic material.
Takashi Obase, Laurie Menviel, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Tristan Vadsaria, Ruza Ivanovic, Brooke Snoll, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Paul Valdes, Lauren Gregoire, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Nathaelle Bouttes, Didier Roche, Fanny Lhardy, Chengfei He, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Zhengyu Liu, and Wing-Le Chan
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-86, 2023
Preprint under review for CP
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This study analyses transient simulations of the last deglaciation performed by six climate models to understand the processes driving southern high latitude temperature changes. We find that atmospheric CO2 changes and AMOC changes are the primary drivers of the major warming and cooling during the middle stage of the deglaciation. The multi-model analysis highlights the model’s sensitivity of CO2, AMOC to meltwater, and the meltwater history on temperature changes in southern high latitudes.
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Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 779–811, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-779-2023, 2023
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
Clemens Schannwell, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, and Marie-Luise Kapsch
Clim. Past, 19, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-179-2023, 2023
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Heinrich-type ice-sheet surges are recurring events over the course of the last glacial cycle during which large numbers of icebergs are discharged from the Laurentide ice sheet into the ocean. These events alter the evolution of the global climate. Here, we use model simulations of the Laurentide ice sheet to identify and quantify the importance of various climate and ice-sheet parameters for the simulated surge cycle.
Zeguo Zhang, Sebastian Wagner, Marlene Klockmann, and Eduardo Zorita
Clim. Past, 18, 2643–2668, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022, 2022
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Tim Rohrschneider, Johanna Baehr, Veit Lüschow, Dian Putrasahan, and Jochem Marotzke
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This paper presents an analysis of wind sensitivity experiments in order to provide insight into the wind forcing dependence of the AMOC by understanding the behavior of its depth scale(s).
Lennart Ramme and Jochem Marotzke
Clim. Past, 18, 759–774, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-759-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-759-2022, 2022
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After the Marinoan snowball Earth, the climate warmed rapidly due to enhanced greenhouse conditions, and the freshwater inflow of melting glaciers caused a strong stratification of the ocean. Our climate simulations reveal a potentially only moderate global temperature increase and a break-up of the stratification within just a few thousand years. The findings give insights into the environmental conditions relevant for the geological and biological evolution during that time.
Katharina Dorothea Six and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-27, 2022
Preprint withdrawn
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We developed a global ocean biogeochemical model with a zoom on the Benguela upwelling system. We show that the high spatial resolution is necessary to capture long-term trends of oxygen of the recent past. The regional anthropogenic carbon uptake over the last century is lower than compared to a coarser resolution ocean model as used in Earth system models. This suggests that, at least for some regions, the changes projected by these Earth system models are associated with high uncertainty.
Masa Kageyama, Sandy P. Harrison, Marie-L. Kapsch, Marcus Lofverstrom, Juan M. Lora, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Sam Sherriff-Tadano, Tristan Vadsaria, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Nathaelle Bouttes, Deepak Chandan, Lauren J. Gregoire, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Kenji Izumi, Allegra N. LeGrande, Fanny Lhardy, Gerrit Lohmann, Polina A. Morozova, Rumi Ohgaito, André Paul, W. Richard Peltier, Christopher J. Poulsen, Aurélien Quiquet, Didier M. Roche, Xiaoxu Shi, Jessica E. Tierney, Paul J. Valdes, Evgeny Volodin, and Jiang Zhu
Clim. Past, 17, 1065–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1065-2021, 2021
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~21 000 years ago) is a major focus for evaluating how well climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future. Here, we compare the latest climate model (CMIP6-PMIP4) to the previous one (CMIP5-PMIP3) and to reconstructions. Large-scale climate features (e.g. land–sea contrast, polar amplification) are well captured by all models, while regional changes (e.g. winter extratropical cooling, precipitations) are still poorly represented.
Marie-Luise Kapsch, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian A. Ziemen, Christian B. Rodehacke, and Clemens Schannwell
The Cryosphere, 15, 1131–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1131-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1131-2021, 2021
Xavier Fettweis, Stefan Hofer, Uta Krebs-Kanzow, Charles Amory, Teruo Aoki, Constantijn J. Berends, Andreas Born, Jason E. Box, Alison Delhasse, Koji Fujita, Paul Gierz, Heiko Goelzer, Edward Hanna, Akihiro Hashimoto, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Michalea D. King, Christoph Kittel, Charlotte Lang, Peter L. Langen, Jan T. M. Lenaerts, Glen E. Liston, Gerrit Lohmann, Sebastian H. Mernild, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kameswarrao Modali, Ruth H. Mottram, Masashi Niwano, Brice Noël, Jonathan C. Ryan, Amy Smith, Jan Streffing, Marco Tedesco, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel van den Broeke, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Leo van Kampenhout, David Wilton, Bert Wouters, Florian Ziemen, and Tobias Zolles
The Cryosphere, 14, 3935–3958, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3935-2020, 2020
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We evaluated simulated Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance from 5 kinds of models. While the most complex (but expensive to compute) models remain the best, the faster/simpler models also compare reliably with observations and have biases of the same order as the regional models. Discrepancies in the trend over 2000–2012, however, suggest that large uncertainties remain in the modelled future SMB changes as they are highly impacted by the meltwater runoff biases over the current climate.
Suzanne Alice Ghislaine Leroy, Klaus Arpe, Uwe Mikolajewicz, and Jing Wu
Clim. Past, 16, 2039–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2039-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-2039-2020, 2020
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The biodiversity of temperate deciduous trees in eastern Asia is greater than in Europe. During the peak of the last ice age, their distribution was obtained based on pollen data literature. A climate model, after validation on the present, was used to calculate the potential distribution of such trees in the past. It shows that the shift of the tree belt was only 2° latitude to the south. Moreover, greater population connectivity was shown for the Yellow Sea and southern Himalayas.
Martin Renoult, James Douglas Annan, Julia Catherine Hargreaves, Navjit Sagoo, Clare Flynn, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Qiong Zhang, and Thorsten Mauritsen
Clim. Past, 16, 1715–1735, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020, 2020
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Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO2. In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values.
Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, Nicola Maher, Jochem Marotzke, Erich M. Fischer, Lukas Brunner, Reto Knutti, and Ed Hawkins
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 491–508, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-491-2020, 2020
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Projections of climate change are uncertain because climate models are imperfect, future greenhouse gases emissions are unknown and climate is to some extent chaotic. To partition and understand these sources of uncertainty and make the best use of climate projections, large ensembles with multiple climate models are needed. Such ensembles now exist in a public data archive. We provide several novel applications focused on global and regional temperature and precipitation projections.
Moritz Mathis and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Ocean Sci., 16, 167–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-167-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-167-2020, 2020
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In a strong global warming scenario, declining nutrient concentrations of Atlantic water masses flushing the NWES lead to a reduction in the biological productivity on the shelf. We show that meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet induces a change in the subpolar ocean circulation, resulting in a nutrient increase of deeper Atlantic water masses. These are mixed up at the shelf break and spread over the shelf, mitigating both the expected nutrient decline and productivity reduction.
Andreas Lang and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Ocean Sci., 15, 651–668, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-651-2019, 2019
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Here we investigate the occurrence of extreme storm surges in the southern German Bight and their associated large-scale forcing mechanisms using climate model simulations covering the last 1000 years. We find that extreme storm surges are characterized by a large internal variability that masks potential links to external climate forcing or background sea level fluctuations; existing estimates of extreme sea levels based on short data records thus fail to account for their full variability.
Florian Andreas Ziemen, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Marlene Klockmann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 15, 153–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-153-2019, 2019
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Heinrich events are among the dominant modes of glacial climate variability. They are caused by massive ice discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic. In previous studies, the climate changes were either seen as resulting from freshwater released from the melt of the discharged icebergs or by ice sheet elevation changes. With a coupled ice sheet–climate model, we show that both effects are relevant with the freshwater effects preceding the ice sheet elevation effects.
Virna Loana Meccia and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4677–4692, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4677-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4677-2018, 2018
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
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During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1191–1215, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1191-2018, 2018
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Model experiments show that changing the sense of Earth's rotation has relatively little impact on the globally and zonally averaged energy budgets but leads to large shifts in continental climates and patterns of precipitation. The retrograde world is greener as the desert area shrinks. Deep water formation shifts from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific with subsequent changes in ocean overturning. Over large areas of the Indian Ocean, cyanobacteria dominate over bulk phytoplankton.
Valerie Menke, Werner Ehrmann, Yvonne Milker, Swaantje Brzelinski, Jürgen Möbius, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Bernd Zolitschka, Karin Zonneveld, Kay Christian Emeis, and Gerhard Schmiedl
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-139, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2017-139, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
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This study examines changes in the marine ecosystem during the past 1300 years in the Gulf of Taranto (Italy) to unravel natural and anthropogenic forcing. Our data suggest, that processes at the sea floor are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. During the past 200 years, the effects of rising northern hemisphere temperature and increasing anthropogenic activity enhanced nutrient and organic matter fluxes leading to more eutrophic conditions.
Masa Kageyama, Samuel Albani, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Olivier Marti, W. Richard Peltier, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Didier M. Roche, Lev Tarasov, Xu Zhang, Esther C. Brady, Alan M. Haywood, Allegra N. LeGrande, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, Uwe Mikolajewicz, Kerim H. Nisancioglu, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Hans Renssen, Robert A. Tomas, Qiong Zhang, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Patrick J. Bartlein, Jian Cao, Qiang Li, Gerrit Lohmann, Rumi Ohgaito, Xiaoxu Shi, Evgeny Volodin, Kohei Yoshida, Xiao Zhang, and Weipeng Zheng
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4035–4055, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017, 2017
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The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21000 years ago) is an interval when global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. This paper describes the implementation of the LGM numerical experiment for the PMIP4-CMIP6 modelling intercomparison projects and the associated sensitivity experiments.
N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
Clim. Past, 11, 765–779, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-765-2015, 2015
F. A. Ziemen, C. B. Rodehacke, and U. Mikolajewicz
Clim. Past, 10, 1817–1836, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1817-2014, 2014
M. Gröger, E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Moll, and D. Sein
Biogeosciences, 10, 3767–3792, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013, 2013
P. Bakker, E. J. Stone, S. Charbit, M. Gröger, U. Krebs-Kanzow, S. P. Ritz, V. Varma, V. Khon, D. J. Lunt, U. Mikolajewicz, M. Prange, H. Renssen, B. Schneider, and M. Schulz
Clim. Past, 9, 605–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-605-2013, 2013
S. Tietsche, D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke
Ocean Sci., 9, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Ocean Dynamics | Archive: Modelling only | Timescale: Pleistocene
Impact of ice sheet meltwater fluxes on the climate evolution at the onset of the Last Interglacial
The impacts of deglacial meltwater forcing on the South Atlantic Ocean deep circulation since the Last Glacial Maximum
Heiko Goelzer, Philippe Huybrechts, Marie-France Loutre, and Thierry Fichefet
Clim. Past, 12, 1721–1737, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1721-2016, 2016
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We have modelled the climate evolution from 135 to 120 kyr BP with an Earth system model to study the onset of the Last Interglacial warm period. Ice sheet changes and associated freshwater fluxes in both hemispheres constitute an important forcing in the simulations. Freshwater fluxes from the melting Antarctic ice sheet are found to lead to an oceanic cold event in the Southern Ocean as evidenced in some ocean sediment cores, which may be used to constrain the timing of ice sheet retreat.
J. M. Marson, I. Wainer, M. M. Mata, and Z. Liu
Clim. Past, 10, 1723–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1723-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1723-2014, 2014
Cited articles
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Short summary
We study the response of the glacial AMOC to different forcings in a coupled AOGCM. The depth of the upper overturning cell remains almost unchanged in response to the full glacial forcing. This is the result of two opposing effects: a deepening due to the ice sheets and a shoaling due to the low GHG concentrations. Increased brine release in the Southern Ocean is key to the shoaling. With glacial ice sheets, a shallower cell can be simulated with GHG concentrations below the glacial level.
We study the response of the glacial AMOC to different forcings in a coupled AOGCM. The depth of...
