Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Visser, Hans; Dangendorf, Sönke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Bregman, Bram; Petersen, Arthur C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-139-2018

© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 2

Research article

|

05 Feb 2018

Research article |

| 05 Feb 2018

Signal detection in global mean temperatures after “Paris”: an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Hans Visser, Sönke Dangendorf, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Bram Bregman, and Arthur C. Petersen

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Final revised paper (published on 05 Feb 2018)
Preprint (discussion started on 06 Jul 2017)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of Visser et al.', Peter Thorne, 24 Jul 2017
- AC1: 'Authors response to two reviewers and L.A. Smith', Hans Visser, 15 Sep 2017
RC2: 'Review of Visser et al.', Anonymous Referee #2, 04 Aug 2017
- AC2: 'Response to anonymous reviewer #2', Hans Visser, 15 Sep 2017
SC1: 'Clarity regarding Natural Variability, Signal, Noise and Targets', Leonard Smith, 31 Aug 2017
- AC3: 'Authors response to L.A. Smith', Hans Visser, 15 Sep 2017
EC1: 'Revisions required', Stefan Bronnimann, 04 Sep 2017

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (20 Sep 2017) by Stefan Bronnimann

AR by Hans Visser on behalf of the Authors (27 Oct 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 Nov 2017) by Stefan Bronnimann

RR by Peter Thorne (14 Nov 2017)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Nov 2017)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (22 Nov 2017) by Stefan Bronnimann

AR by Hans Visser on behalf of the Authors (05 Dec 2017) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (08 Dec 2017) by Stefan Bronnimann

AR by Hans Visser on behalf of the Authors (12 Dec 2017)

Short summary

In December 2015, 195 countries agreed in Paris to hold the increase in global temperature well below 2.0 °C. However, the Paris Agreement is not conclusive as regards methods to calculate it. To find answers to these questions we performed an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis where datasets, model choices, choices for pre-industrial and warming definitions have been varied. Based on these findings we propose an estimate for signal progression in global temperature since pre-industrial time.