Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-413-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
27 Mar 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 27 Mar 2018
| 27 Mar 2018
A 305-year continuous monthly rainfall series for the island of Ireland (1711–2016)
Conor Murphy
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Ciaran Broderick
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Timothy P. Burt
Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK and Department of Geographical
Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2LR, UK
Mary Curley
Climatology and Observations Division, Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland
Catriona Duffy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Julia Hall
Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien, Vienna, Austria
Shaun Harrigan
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Tom K. R. Matthews
School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, Merseyside, L3 3AF, UK
Neil Macdonald
Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
Gerard McCarthy
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Mark P. McCarthy
Met Office, Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Donal Mullan
School of Natural and Built Environment, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, N. Ireland, UK
Simon Noone
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Timothy J. Osborn
Climate Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Ciara Ryan
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
John Sweeney
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Peter W. Thorne
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University,
Maynooth, Ireland
Seamus Walsh
Climatology and Observations Division, Met Éireann, Dublin, Ireland
Robert L. Wilby
Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
Related authors
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Katherine Dooley, Ciaran Kelly, Natascha Seifert, Therese Myslinski, Sophie O'Kelly, Rushna Siraj, Ciara Crosby, Jack Kevin Dunne, Kate McCauley, James Donoghue, Eoin Gaddren, Daniel Conway, Jordan Cooney, Niamh McCarthy, Eoin Cullen, Simon Noone, Conor Murphy, and Peter Thorne
Clim. Past, 19, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. This paper reassesses the plausibility of the record using various methods such as inter-station reassessment and 20CRv3 reanalysis. As a result, Boora 1976 at 32.5 °C is presented as a more reliable high-temperature record for the Republic of Ireland. The final decision however rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.
Samuel O. Awe, Martin Mahony, Edley Michaud, Conor Murphy, Simon J. Noone, Victor K. C. Venema, Thomas G. Thorne, and Peter W. Thorne
Clim. Past, 18, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We unearth and analyse 2 decades of highly valuable measurements made on Mauritius at the Royal Alfred Observatory, where several distinct thermometer combinations were in use and compared, at the turn of the 20th century. This series provides unique insights into biases in early instrumental temperature records. Differences are substantial and for some instruments exhibit strong seasonality. This reinforces the critical importance of understanding early instrumental series biases.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Tom Matthews, L. Baker Perry, Nirakar Thapa, and Rob Wilby
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-36, 2024
Preprint under review for GMD
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces the AtsMOS workflow, a new tool for improving weather forecasts in mountainous areas. By combining advanced statistical techniques with local weather data, AtsMOS can provide more accurate predictions of weather conditions. Using data from Mount Everest as an example, AtsMOS has shown promise in better forecasting hazardous weather conditions, making it a valuable tool for communities in mountainous regions and beyond.
Piers M. Forster, Christopher J. Smith, Tristram Walsh, William F. Lamb, Robin Lamboll, Mathias Hauser, Aurélien Ribes, Debbie Rosen, Nathan Gillett, Matthew D. Palmer, Joeri Rogelj, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Blair Trewin, Xuebin Zhang, Myles Allen, Robbie Andrew, Arlene Birt, Alex Borger, Tim Boyer, Jiddu A. Broersma, Lijing Cheng, Frank Dentener, Pierre Friedlingstein, José M. Gutiérrez, Johannes Gütschow, Bradley Hall, Masayoshi Ishii, Stuart Jenkins, Xin Lan, June-Yi Lee, Colin Morice, Christopher Kadow, John Kennedy, Rachel Killick, Jan C. Minx, Vaishali Naik, Glen P. Peters, Anna Pirani, Julia Pongratz, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sophie Szopa, Peter Thorne, Robert Rohde, Maisa Rojas Corradi, Dominik Schumacher, Russell Vose, Kirsten Zickfeld, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, and Panmao Zhai
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2295–2327, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2295-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This is a critical decade for climate action, but there is no annual tracking of the level of human-induced warming. We build on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports that are authoritative but published infrequently to create a set of key global climate indicators that can be tracked through time. Our hope is that this becomes an important annual publication that policymakers, media, scientists and the public can refer to.
Louise J. Slater, Louise Arnal, Marie-Amélie Boucher, Annie Y.-Y. Chang, Simon Moulds, Conor Murphy, Grey Nearing, Guy Shalev, Chaopeng Shen, Linda Speight, Gabriele Villarini, Robert L. Wilby, Andrew Wood, and Massimiliano Zappa
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1865–1889, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1865-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hybrid forecasting systems combine data-driven methods with physics-based weather and climate models to improve the accuracy of predictions for meteorological and hydroclimatic events such as rainfall, temperature, streamflow, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, or atmospheric rivers. We review recent developments in hybrid forecasting and outline key challenges and opportunities in the field.
Nele Reyniers, Timothy J. Osborn, Nans Addor, and Geoff Darch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1151–1171, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1151-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In an analysis of future drought projections for Great Britain based on the Standardised Precipitation Index and the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, we show that the choice of drought indicator has a decisive influence on the resulting projected changes in drought characteristics, although both result in increased drying. This highlights the need to understand the interplay between increasing atmospheric evaporative demand and drought impacts under a changing climate.
Katherine Dooley, Ciaran Kelly, Natascha Seifert, Therese Myslinski, Sophie O'Kelly, Rushna Siraj, Ciara Crosby, Jack Kevin Dunne, Kate McCauley, James Donoghue, Eoin Gaddren, Daniel Conway, Jordan Cooney, Niamh McCarthy, Eoin Cullen, Simon Noone, Conor Murphy, and Peter Thorne
Clim. Past, 19, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. This paper reassesses the plausibility of the record using various methods such as inter-station reassessment and 20CRv3 reanalysis. As a result, Boora 1976 at 32.5 °C is presented as a more reliable high-temperature record for the Republic of Ireland. The final decision however rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Amin Shoari Nejad, Andrew C. Parnell, Alice Greene, Peter Thorne, Brian P. Kelleher, Robert J. N. Devoy, and Gerard McCarthy
Ocean Sci., 18, 511–522, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-511-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-511-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We have collated multiple sources of tide gauge data for Dublin Port, and subsequently corrected them for bias. We have then shown that these corrected mean sea level measurements agree with nearby tide gauges to a far higher degree than the raw data. A longer-term comparison with Brest and Newlyn also indicates overall agreement. Our final adjusted dataset estimated the rate of sea level rise to be 1.1 mm/yr between 1953 and 2016 and 7 mm/yr between 1997 and 2016 at Dublin Port.
Samuel O. Awe, Martin Mahony, Edley Michaud, Conor Murphy, Simon J. Noone, Victor K. C. Venema, Thomas G. Thorne, and Peter W. Thorne
Clim. Past, 18, 793–820, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-793-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We unearth and analyse 2 decades of highly valuable measurements made on Mauritius at the Royal Alfred Observatory, where several distinct thermometer combinations were in use and compared, at the turn of the 20th century. This series provides unique insights into biases in early instrumental temperature records. Differences are substantial and for some instruments exhibit strong seasonality. This reinforces the critical importance of understanding early instrumental series biases.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Hadush Meresa, Conor Murphy, Rowan Fealy, and Saeed Golian
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5237–5257, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5237-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assessment of future impacts of climate change is associated with a cascade of uncertainty linked to the modelling chain employed in assessing local-scale changes. Understanding and quantifying this cascade is essential for developing effective adaptation actions. We find that not only do the contributions of different sources of uncertainty vary by catchment, but that the dominant sources of uncertainty can be very different on a catchment-by-catchment basis.
Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Emanuel Dutra, Anna Agustí-Panareda, Clément Albergel, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Souhail Boussetta, Margarita Choulga, Shaun Harrigan, Hans Hersbach, Brecht Martens, Diego G. Miralles, María Piles, Nemesio J. Rodríguez-Fernández, Ervin Zsoter, Carlo Buontempo, and Jean-Noël Thépaut
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4349–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4349-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The creation of ERA5-Land responds to a growing number of applications requiring global land datasets at a resolution higher than traditionally reached. ERA5-Land provides operational, global, and hourly key variables of the water and energy cycles over land surfaces, at 9 km resolution, from 1981 until the present. This work provides evidence of an overall improvement of the water cycle compared to previous reanalyses, whereas the energy cycle variables perform as well as those of ERA5.
Seán Donegan, Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan, Ciaran Broderick, Dáire Foran Quinn, Saeed Golian, Jeff Knight, Tom Matthews, Christel Prudhomme, Adam A. Scaife, Nicky Stringer, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4159–4183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked the skill of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) for a diverse sample of 46 Irish catchments. We found that ESP is skilful in the majority of catchments up to several months ahead. However, the level of skill was strongly dependent on lead time, initialisation month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. We also conditioned ESP with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and show that improvements in forecast skill, reliability, and discrimination are possible.
Louise J. Slater, Bailey Anderson, Marcus Buechel, Simon Dadson, Shasha Han, Shaun Harrigan, Timo Kelder, Katie Kowal, Thomas Lees, Tom Matthews, Conor Murphy, and Robert L. Wilby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3897–3935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3897-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.
Andrew M. W. Newton and Donal J. Mullan
The Cryosphere, 15, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-2211-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates changes in the dates of ice freeze-up and breakup for 678 Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers from 1931–2005. From 3510 time series, the results show that breakup dates have gradually occurred earlier through time, whilst freeze-up trends have tended to be significantly more variable. These data combined show that the number of annual open-water days has increased through time for most sites, with the magnitude of change at its largest in more recent years.
LingYun Tang, Neil Macdonald, Heather Sangster, Richard Chiverrell, and Rachel Gaulton
Clim. Past, 16, 1917–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1917-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A historical drought series (since 1200 CE) for Shenyang, NE China, shows 20th century droughts comparable in magnitude to recent severe droughts. Drought resilience driven by early 20th century societal/cultural changes reduced loss of life compared with the 1887 and 1891 droughts. A longer temporal analysis from integrated precipitation and historical records shows an earlier onset to droughts. Regional standardised precipitation indices could provide early warnings for drought development.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Peter Salamon, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christopher Barnard, Hannah Cloke, and Florian Pappenberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2043–2060, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2043-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A new river discharge reanalysis dataset is produced operationally by coupling ECMWF's latest global atmospheric reanalysis, ERA5, with the hydrological modelling component of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis is a global gridded dataset with a horizontal resolution of 0.1° at a daily time step and is freely available from 1979 until near real time. The evaluation against observations shows that the GloFAS-ERA5 reanalysis was skilful in 86 % of catchments.
Fabio Madonna, Emanuele Tramutola, Souleymane Sy, Federico Serva, Monica Proto, Marco Rosoldi, Simone Gagliardi, Francesco Amato, Fabrizio Marra, Alessandro Fassò, Tom Gardiner, and Peter William Thorne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-183, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2020-183, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
In situ measurements, including radiosonde observations, are key for the study of climate. However, observations are more often than not influenced by instrumental effects which must be adjusted prior to their usage.
A novel approach, named RHARM (Radiosounding HARMonization), is able to improve quality of global radiosounding profiles of temperature, humidity and wind. RHARM also estimates the measurement uncertainties. This paper discusses the post-2004 radiosounding measurements only.
Ruud J. Dirksen, Greg E. Bodeker, Peter W. Thorne, Andrea Merlone, Tony Reale, Junhong Wang, Dale F. Hurst, Belay B. Demoz, Tom D. Gardiner, Bruce Ingleby, Michael Sommer, Christoph von Rohden, and Thierry Leblanc
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 337–355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-337-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-337-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes GRUAN's strategy for a network-wide change of the operational radiosonde from Vaisala RS92 to RS41. GRUAN's main goal is to provide long-term data records that are free of inhomogeneities due to instrumental effects, which requires proper change management. The approach is to fully characterize differences between the two radiosonde types using laboratory tests, twin soundings, and ancillary data, as well as by drawing from the various fields of expertise available in GRUAN.
Fabio Madonna, Rigel Kivi, Jean-Charles Dupont, Bruce Ingleby, Masatomo Fujiwara, Gonzague Romanens, Miguel Hernandez, Xavier Calbet, Marco Rosoldi, Aldo Giunta, Tomi Karppinen, Masami Iwabuchi, Shunsuke Hoshino, Christoph von Rohden, and Peter William Thorne
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 3621–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3621-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-3621-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Radiosondes are one of the primary sources of upper-air data for weather and climate monitoring. In the last two decades, technological progress made available automated radiosonde launchers (ARLs), which are able to replace measurements typically performed manually. This work presents a comparative analysis of the technical performance of the ARLs currently available on the market and contribute to define a strategy to achieve the full traceability of the ARL products.
Miriam Bertola, Alberto Viglione, David Lun, Julia Hall, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1805–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1805-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate changes that occurred in small vs. big flood events and in small vs. large catchments across Europe over 5 decades. Annual maximum discharge series between 1960 and 2010 from 2370 gauges in Europe are analysed. Distinctive patterns of flood regime change are identified for large regions across Europe, which depend on flood magnitude and catchment size.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Simon Noone, Alison Brody, Sasha Brown, Niamh Cantwell, Martha Coleman, Louise Sarsfield Collins, Caoilfhionn Darcy, Dick Dee, Seán Donegan, Rowan Fealy, Padraig Flattery, Rhonda McGovern, Caspar Menkman, Michael Murphy, Christopher Phillips, Martina Roche, and Peter Thorne
Geosci. Commun., 2, 157–171, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-157-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The Global Land and Marine Observations Database aims to produce a comprehensive land-based meteorological data archive and inventory. Data sources contained stations in incorrect locations; therefore, we developed the Geo-locate project, enlisting the help of undergraduate geography students. The project has resolved 1926 station issues so far. Due to the success of the Geo-locate project, we encourage other organizations to engage university students to help resolve similar data issues.
Satyaban B. Ratna, Timothy J. Osborn, Manoj Joshi, Bao Yang, and Jianglin Wang
Clim. Past, 15, 1825–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1825-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We examine the relationships in models and reconstructions between multidecadal variability of East Asian temperature and two extratropical modes of variability. The relationship between East Asian temperature and Pacific multidecadal variability is largely driven by internal variability, whereas with Atlantic multidecadal variability it is more strongly influenced by the presence or absence of external forcing. We discuss the implications for diagnosing teleconnections from reconstructions.
Katie A. Smith, Lucy J. Barker, Maliko Tanguy, Simon Parry, Shaun Harrigan, Tim P. Legg, Christel Prudhomme, and Jamie Hannaford
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3268, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3247-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes the multi-objective calibration approach used to create a consistent dataset of reconstructed daily river flow data for 303 catchments in the UK over 1891–2015. The modelled data perform well when compared to observations, including in the timing and the classification of drought events. This method and data will allow for long-term studies of flow trends and past extreme events that have not been previously possible, enabling water managers to better plan for the future.
Louise J. Slater, Guillaume Thirel, Shaun Harrigan, Olivier Delaigue, Alexander Hurley, Abdou Khouakhi, Ilaria Prosdocimi, Claudia Vitolo, and Katie Smith
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2939–2963, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-2939-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper explores the benefits and advantages of R's usage in hydrology. We provide an overview of a typical hydrological workflow based on reproducible principles and packages for retrieval of hydro-meteorological data, spatial analysis, hydrological modelling, statistics, and the design of static and dynamic visualizations and documents. We discuss some of the challenges that arise when using R in hydrology as well as a roadmap for R’s future within the discipline.
John K. Hillier, Geoffrey R. Saville, Mike J. Smith, Alister J. Scott, Emma K. Raven, Jonathon Gascoigne, Louise J. Slater, Nevil Quinn, Andreas Tsanakas, Claire Souch, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Neil Macdonald, Alice M. Milner, Jennifer Loxton, Rebecca Wilebore, Alexandra Collins, Colin MacKechnie, Jaqui Tweddle, Sarah Moller, MacKenzie Dove, Harry Langford, and Jim Craig
Geosci. Commun., 2, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-2-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Worldwide there is intense interest in converting research excellence in universities into commercial success, but there has been scant attention devoted to exactly how individual scientists' workload and incentive structures may be a key barrier to this. Our work reveals the real challenge posed by a time-constrained university culture, better describes how work with business might fit into an academic job, and gives tips on working together in an
user guidefor scientists and (re)insurers.
Lila Collet, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5387–5401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Floods and droughts cause significant damages and pose risks to lives worldwide. In a climate change context this work identifies hotspots across Great Britain, i.e. places expected to be impacted by an increase in floods and droughts. By the 2080s the western coast of England and Wales and northeastern Scotland would experience more floods in winter and droughts in autumn, with a higher increase in drought hazard, showing a need to adapt water management policies in light of climate change.
Julia Hall and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3883–3901, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3883-2018, 2018
Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Katie Smith, and Maliko Tanguy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023–2039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
Peter W. Thorne, Fabio Madonna, Joerg Schulz, Tim Oakley, Bruce Ingleby, Marco Rosoldi, Emanuele Tramutola, Antti Arola, Matthias Buschmann, Anna C. Mikalsen, Richard Davy, Corinne Voces, Karin Kreher, Martine De Maziere, and Gelsomina Pappalardo
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 6, 453–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-6-453-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The term system-of-systems with respect to observational capabilities is frequently used, but what does it mean and how can it be assessed? Here, we define one possible interpretation of a system-of-systems architecture that is based upon demonstrable aspects of observing capabilities. We develop a set of assessment strands and then apply these to a set of atmospheric observational networks to decide which observations may be suitable for characterising satellite platforms in future work.
Neil Macdonald and Heather Sangster
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1631–1650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1631-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We use historical records to extend current understanding of flood risk, examining past spatial and temporal variability and ask
are the perceived high-magnitude flood events witnessed in recent years really unprecedented?We identify that there are statistically significant relationships between the British flood index and climatic drivers, whereby the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented.
Daniel Green, Dapeng Yu, Ian Pattison, Robert Wilby, Lee Bosher, Ramila Patel, Philip Thompson, Keith Trowell, Julia Draycon, Martin Halse, Lili Yang, and Tim Ryley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates a novel method of evaluating emergency responder accessibility at the city scale during fluvial and surface water flood events of varying magnitudes. Results suggest that surface water flood events within the city of Leicester, UK, may cause more disruption to emergency responders when compared to fluvial flood events of the same magnitude. This study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during flood events.
Esraa Tarawneh, Jonathan Bridge, and Neil Macdonald
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4391–4407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4391-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4391-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a rapid, robust and reproducible approach to select optimum inputs for hydrological models. We show significant variation in pre-calibrated model performance due to the choice of different combinations of land-use, soil and weather datasets, particularly in data-scarce regions most in need of computationally-efficient approaches to optimise reliability of models and support decision-making. Our case study is directly relevant to planners and decision-makers in Wala, Jordan.
Simon Parry, Robert L. Wilby, Christel Prudhomme, and Paul J. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4265–4281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper identifies periods of recovery from drought in 52 river flow records from the UK between 1883 and 2013. The approach detects 459 events that vary in space and time. This large dataset allows individual events to be compared with others in the historical record. The ability to objectively appraise contemporary events against the historical record has not previously been possible, and may allow water managers to prepare for a range of outcomes at the end of a drought.
Colleen M. Lynch, Iestyn D. Barr, Donal Mullan, and Alastair Ruffell
The Cryosphere, 10, 1809–1821, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1809-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Early 21st century changes in the extent of glaciers on Kamchatka were manually mapped from satellite imagery. This revealed 673 glaciers, with a total surface area of 775.7 ± 27.9 km2 in 2000, and 738 glaciers, with a total area of 592.9 ± 20.4 km2 in 2014. This ~24 % decline in glacier surface area is considered to reflect variations in climate (particularly rising summer temperatures), though the response of individual glaciers was likely modulated by other (non-climatic) factors.
Hélène Brogniez, Stephen English, Jean-François Mahfouf, Andreas Behrendt, Wesley Berg, Sid Boukabara, Stefan Alexander Buehler, Philippe Chambon, Antonia Gambacorta, Alan Geer, William Ingram, E. Robert Kursinski, Marco Matricardi, Tatyana A. Odintsova, Vivienne H. Payne, Peter W. Thorne, Mikhail Yu. Tretyakov, and Junhong Wang
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 2207–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2207-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-2207-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Because a systematic difference between measurements of water vapor performed by space-borne observing instruments in the microwave spectral domain and their numerical modeling was recently highlighted, this work discusses and gives an overview of the various errors and uncertainties associated with each element in the comparison process. Indeed, the knowledge of absolute errors in any observation of the climate system is key, more specifically because we need to detect small changes.
E. Frajka-Williams, C. S. Meinen, W. E. Johns, D. A. Smeed, A. Duchez, A. J. Lawrence, D. A. Cuthbertson, G. D. McCarthy, H. L. Bryden, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, and D. Rayner
Ocean Sci., 12, 481–493, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-12-481-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is predicted by climate models to slow down in this century, resulting in reduced transport of heat northward to mid-latitudes. At 26° N, the Atlantic MOC has been measured continuously for the past decade (2004–2014). In this paper, we discuss the 10-year record of variability, identify the origins of the continued weakening of the circulation, and discuss high-frequency (subannual) compensation between transport components.
J. Armstrong, R. Wilby, and R. J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2511–2524, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2511-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A criterion to categorise climate change adaptation frameworks is presented denoting characteristics of three key frameworks established in the literature: scenario–led, decision-centric and vulnerability–led. Applying the criterion, the usability of frameworks is examined in coastal Suffolk. Results indicate adaptation frameworks established in the literature are not utilised in isolation in everyday practice. In reality, hybrid approaches are utilised to overcome aspects of framework weakness.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
J. Crossman, M. N. Futter, P. G. Whitehead, E. Stainsby, H. M. Baulch, L. Jin, S. K. Oni, R. L. Wilby, and P. J. Dillon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5125–5148, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5125-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We projected potential hydrochemical responses in four neighbouring catchments to a range of future climates. The highly variable responses in streamflow and total phosphorus (TP) were governed by geology and flow pathways, where larger catchment responses were proportional to greater soil clay content. This suggests clay content might be used as an indicator of catchment sensitivity to climate change, and highlights the need for catchment-specific management plans.
K. M. Willett, R. J. H. Dunn, P. W. Thorne, S. Bell, M. de Podesta, D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, and C. N. Williams Jr.
Clim. Past, 10, 1983–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1983-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed HadISDH, a new gridded global land monthly mean climate montitoring product for humidity and temperature from 1973 to then end of 2013 (updated annually) based entirely on in situ observations. Uncertainty estimates are provided. Over the period of record significant warming and increases in water vapour have taken place. The specific humidity trends have slowed since a peak in 1998 concurrent with decreasing relative humidity from 2000 onwards.
N. Macdonald, T. R. Kjeldsen, I. Prosdocimi, and H. Sangster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2817–2828, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2817-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2817-2014, 2014
K. Willett, C. Williams, I. T. Jolliffe, R. Lund, L. V. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, L. A. Vincent, S. Easterbrook, V. K. C. Venema, D. Berry, R. E. Warren, G. Lopardo, R. Auchmann, E. Aguilar, M. J. Menne, C. Gallagher, Z. Hausfather, T. Thorarinsdottir, and P. W. Thorne
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 3, 187–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-3-187-2014, 2014
H. L. Bryden, B. A. King, G. D. McCarthy, and E. L. McDonagh
Ocean Sci., 10, 683–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-683-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-683-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
B. Merz, J. Aerts, K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Baldi, A. Becker, A. Bichet, G. Blöschl, L. M. Bouwer, A. Brauer, F. Cioffi, J. M. Delgado, M. Gocht, F. Guzzetti, S. Harrigan, K. Hirschboeck, C. Kilsby, W. Kron, H.-H. Kwon, U. Lall, R. Merz, K. Nissen, P. Salvatti, T. Swierczynski, U. Ulbrich, A. Viglione, P. J. Ward, M. Weiler, B. Wilhelm, and M. Nied
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1921–1942, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1921-2014, 2014
S. Harrigan, C. Murphy, J. Hall, R. L. Wilby, and J. Sweeney
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1935–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014
D. A. Smeed, G. D. McCarthy, S. A. Cunningham, E. Frajka-Williams, D. Rayner, W. E. Johns, C. S. Meinen, M. O. Baringer, B. I. Moat, A. Duchez, and H. L. Bryden
Ocean Sci., 10, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-29-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-29-2014, 2014
T. J. Osborn and P. D. Jones
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 61–68, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-61-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-61-2014, 2014
R. L. Wilby and D. Yu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3937–3955, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3937-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Historical Records | Timescale: Centennial-Decadal
Technical Note: A best-practice approach to calculating the Southern Annular Mode index
Reassessing long-standing meteorological records: an example using the national hottest day in Ireland
Extreme historical droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, since 1426
Influence of warming and atmospheric circulation changes on multidecadal European flood variability
Assimilating monthly precipitation data in a paleoclimate data assimilation framework
Historical droughts in the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) of China
Impact of different estimations of the background-error covariance matrix on climate reconstructions based on data assimilation
Causes of increased flood frequency in central Europe in the 19th century
Changes in the strength and width of the Hadley Circulation since 1871
Ecosystem effects of CO2 concentration: evidence from past climates
Laura Velasquez-Jimenez and Nerilie J. Abram
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-64, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-64, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) influences climate in the Southern hemisphere. We investigate the effects of calculation method and data used to calculate the SAM index, and how it influences the relationship between the SAM and climate. We propose a method to calculate a dimensional SAM index that facilitate consistency between studies, including when using different data resolutions, avoiding distortion of SAM impacts and allow more reliable results of past and future SAM trends.
Katherine Dooley, Ciaran Kelly, Natascha Seifert, Therese Myslinski, Sophie O'Kelly, Rushna Siraj, Ciara Crosby, Jack Kevin Dunne, Kate McCauley, James Donoghue, Eoin Gaddren, Daniel Conway, Jordan Cooney, Niamh McCarthy, Eoin Cullen, Simon Noone, Conor Murphy, and Peter Thorne
Clim. Past, 19, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The highest currently recognised air temperature (33.3 °C) ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland was logged at Kilkenny Castle in 1887. This paper reassesses the plausibility of the record using various methods such as inter-station reassessment and 20CRv3 reanalysis. As a result, Boora 1976 at 32.5 °C is presented as a more reliable high-temperature record for the Republic of Ireland. The final decision however rests with the national meteorological service, Met Éireann.
Xiaodan Zhang, Guoyu Ren, Yuda Yang, He Bing, Zhixin Hao, and Panfeng Zhang
Clim. Past, 18, 1775–1796, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Applying yearly drought and flood records from historical documents and precipitation data in the period of instrumental measurements, this study constructs a time series of extreme droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin from 1426–2017 and analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought and flood event variations.
Stefan Brönnimann, Peter Stucki, Jörg Franke, Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Ralf Hand, Laura C. Slivinski, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, Michel Lang, and Bettina Schaefli
Clim. Past, 18, 919–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-919-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Floods in Europe vary on time scales of several decades. Flood-rich and flood-poor periods alternate. Recently floods have again become more frequent. Long time series of peak stream flow, precipitation, and atmospheric variables reveal that until around 1980, these changes were mostly due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, in recent decades the role of increasing atmospheric moisture due to climate warming has become more important and is now the main driver of flood changes.
Veronika Valler, Yuri Brugnara, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 16, 1309–1323, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1309-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Data assimilation is becoming more and more important for past climate reconstructions. The assimilation of monthly resolved precipitation information has not been explored much so far. In this study we analyze the impact of assimilating monthly precipitation amounts and the number of wet days within an existing paleoclimate data assimilation framework. We find increased skill in the reconstruction, suggesting that monthly precipitation can constitute valuable input for future reconstructions.
Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Pao K. Wang, Pi-Ling Pai, Yu-Shiuan Lin, and Chih-Wei Wang
Clim. Past, 16, 911–931, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-911-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-911-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study reconstructs drought chronologies of the Qing dynasty (1644–1911) based on Chinese documentary records from the REACHES database. In addition to drought records, ecological and societal records are also retrieved. Tests are performed to cross-check data and time series. Six severe drought periods are identified, and spatial patterns are revealed through multivariable analysis. Drought consequence networks are built highlighting human intervention affecting famine and social turmoil.
Veronika Valler, Jörg Franke, and Stefan Brönnimann
Clim. Past, 15, 1427–1441, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1427-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the data assimilation approach was adapted to the field of paleoclimatology to reconstruct past climate fields by combining model simulations and observations.
To improve the performance of our paleodata assimilation system, we tested various techniques that are well established in weather forecasting and evaluated their impact on assimilating instrumental data and proxy records (tree rings).
Stefan Brönnimann, Luca Frigerio, Mikhaël Schwander, Marco Rohrer, Peter Stucki, and Jörg Franke
Clim. Past, 15, 1395–1409, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1395-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
During the 19th century flood frequency was high in central Europe, but it was low in the mid-20th century. This paper tracks these decadal changes in flood frequency for the case of Switzerland from peak discharge data back to precipitation data and daily weather reconstructions. We find an increased frequency in flood-prone weather types during large parts of the 19th century and decreased frequency in the mid-20th century. Sea-surface temperature anomalies can only explain a small part of it.
J. Liu, M. Song, Y. Hu, and X. Ren
Clim. Past, 8, 1169–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1169-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1169-2012, 2012
I. C. Prentice and S. P. Harrison
Clim. Past, 5, 297–307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-297-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-297-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Alexander, L. V. and Jones, P. D.: Updated precipitation series for the UK and discussion of recent extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2, 142–150, https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2000.0016, 2001.
Alexandersson, H.: A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data, J. Climatol., 6, 661–675, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060607, 1986.
Barker, P. A., Wilby, R. L., and Borrows, J.: A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District, Hydrolog. Sci. J. 49, 769–785, https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.49.5.769.55131, 2004.
Barnston, A. G. and Livezey, R. E.: Classification, seasonality and persistence of low frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1083–1126, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2, 1987.
Barriopedro, D., Gallego, D., Alvarez-Castro, M. C., García-Herrera, R., Wheeler, D., Pena-Ortiz, C., and Barbosa, S. M.: Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships' logbooks (1685–2008), Clim. Dynam., 43, 939–955, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1957-8, 2014.
Bartlett, M. S.: Properties of sufficiency and statistical tests, P. Roy. Soc. Lond. A Mat., 160, 268–282, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1937.0109, 1937.
Blundell, N.: The Great Diurnal of Nicholas Blundell of Little Crosby, Lancashire (Vol. 112), Record Society of Lancashire and Cheshire, Chester, 1968.
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Luterbacher, J., Moberg, A., Pfister, C., Wheeler, D., and Zorita, E.: European Clim. Past 500 years: new challenges for historical climatology, Climatic Change, 101, 7–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9783-z, 2010a.
Brázdil, R., Demarée, G. R., Deutsch, M., Garnier, E., Kiss, A., Kolář, P., Luterbacher, J., Macdonald, N., and Rohr, C.: Floods of the winter 1783/1784 in Europe: a scenario of an extreme event in the Little Ice Age, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 100, 163–189, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0170-5, 2010b.
Briffa, K. R.: Tree-Climate Relationships and Dendroclimatic Reconstruction in the British Isles, unpublished PhD Dissertation, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 1984.
Burt, T. P. and Howden, N. J. K.: A homogenous daily rainfall record for the Radcliffe Observatory, Oxford, from the 1820s, Water Resour. Res., 47, W09701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010336, 2011.
Burt, T. P., Howden, N. J. K., and Worrall, F.: The changing water cycle: hydroclimatic extremes in the British Isles, WIREs Water, 3, 854–870, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1169, 2016.
Butler, C. J., Coughlin, A. D. S., and Fee, D. T.: Precipitation at Armagh Observatory 1838–1997, Biol. Environ., 98, 123–140, 1998.
Casty, C., Raible, C. C., Stocker, T. F., Wanner, H., and Luterbacher, J.: A European pattern climatology 1766–2000, Clim. Dynam., 29, 791–805, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0257-6, 2007.
Conover, W. J., Johnson, M. E., and Johnson, M. M.: A Comparative Study of Tests for Homogeneity of Variances, with Applications to the Outer Continental Shelf Bidding Data, Technometrics, 23, 351–361, 1981.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Kushnir, Y., Briffa, K. R., Büntgen, U., Frank, D., Krusic, P. J., Tegel, W., van der Schrier, G., Andreu-Hayles, L., and Baillie, M.: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era, Sci. Adv., 1, e1500561, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561, 2015.
Cornes, R. C., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Osborn, T. J.: A daily series of mean sea-level pressure for London, 1692–2007, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 641–656, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2301, 2012.
Cornes, R. C., Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., and Osborn, T. J.: Estimates of the North Atlantic Oscillation back to 1692 using a Paris–London westerly index, Int. J. Climatol., 33, 228–248, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3416, 2013.
Craddock, J. M.: Annual rainfall in England since 1725, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 102, 823–840, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710243412, 1976.
Craddock, J. M. and Craddock, E.: Rainfall at Oxford from 1767 to 1814, estimated from the records of Dr Thomas Hornsby and others, Meteorol. Mag., 106, 361–372, 1977.
Craddock, J. M. and Wales-Smith, B. G.: Monthly rainfall totals representing the East Midlands for the years 1726 to 1975, Meteorol. Mag., 106, 97–111, 1977.
D'Arrigo, R. D., Seager, R., Smerdon, J. E., LeGrande, A., and Cook, E. R.: The anomalous winter of 1783–1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009–2010 winter to blame?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L05706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL046696, 2011.
Dickson, D.: Arctic Ireland: the extraordinary story of the great frost and forgotten famine of 1740–41, White Row Press Ltd. Belfast, 1997.
Dixon, F. E.: Weather in old Dublin, Dublin Historical Record, 13, 94–107, 1953.
Dixon, F. E.: An Irish weather diary of 1711–1725, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 85, 371–385, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49708536606, 1959.
Dixon, F. E.: Some Irish Meteorologists, Irish Astronomical Journal, 9, 113–119, 1969.
Engler, S., Mauelshagen, F., Werner, J., and Luterbacher, J.: The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and “climate migration”, Clim. Past, 9, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1161-2013, 2013.
Galvin, S., Potito, A. P., and Hickey, K. R.: Evaluating the Dendrochronological Potential of Taxux Baccata (Yew) in southwest Ireland, Dendrochronologia, 32, 144–152, 2014.
García-Herrera, R., Konnen, G. P., Wheeler, D. A., Prieto, M. R., Jones, P. D., and Koek, F. B.: CLIWOC: A Climatological Database for the World's Oceans 1750–1854, Clim Change, 73, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6952-6, 2005.
Gershunov, A., Schneider, N., and Barnett, T.: Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO–Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: Signal or noise?, J. Climate, 14, 2486–2492, 2001.
Gimmi, U., Luterbacher, J., Pfister, C., and Wanner, H.: A method to reconstruct long precipitation series using systematic descriptive observations in weather diaries: the example of the precipitation series for Bern, Switzerland (1760–2003), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 87, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-005-0193-5, 2007.
Glasspoole, J.: General monthly rainfall over the British Isles, British Rainfall (1924), His Majesty's Stationary Office, London, 256, 1925.
Gregory, J. M., Jones, P. D., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Precipitation in Britain: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1989, Int. J. Climatol., 11, 331–345, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370110308, 1991.
Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Borga, M., Brázdil, R., Claps, P., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kriaučiūnienė, J., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lang, M., Llasat, M. C., Macdonald, N., McIntyre, N., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Neuhold, C., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R. A. P., Plavcová, L., Rogger, M., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Schär, C., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., and Blöschl, G.: Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014.
Harrigan, S., Murphy, C., Hall, J., Wilby, R. L., and Sweeney, J.: Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1935–1952, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014.
Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grid of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 623–642, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711, 2013.
HOME 2013: Homepage of the COST Action ES0601 – Advances in Homogenisation Methods of Climate Series: An Integrated Approach (HOME), available at: http://www.homogenisation.org, last access: 11 September 2017, 2013.
J Jenkinson, A. F., Shackleton, W., and Lawson, S.: Monthly and Annual Rainfall for Ireland, 1711–1977, UK Met Office Branch Memorandum, No. 77, April 1979.
Jones, P. D.: Further composite rainfall records for the United Kingdom, Meteorol. Mag. 112, 19–27, 1983.
Jones, P. D. and Briffa, K. R.: Unusual climate in northwest Europe during the period 1730 to 1745 based on instrumental and documentary data, Climatic Change, 79, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9078-6, 2006.
Jones, P. D. and Conway, D.: Precipitation in the British Isles: an analysis of area-average data updated to 1995, Int. J. Climatol., 17, 427–438, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970330)17:4<427::AID-JOC139>3.0.CO;2-Q, 1997.
Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Methods, 4th edn., Charles Griffin, London, 1975.
Kokfelt, U. and Muscheler, R.: Solar forcing of climate during the last millennium recorded in lake sediments from northern Sweden, Holocene, 23, 447–452, 2013.
Küttel, M., Xoplaki, E., Gallego, D., Luterbacher, J., Garcia-Herrera, R., Allan, R., Barriendos, M., Jones, P. D., Wheeler, D., and Wanner, H.: The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750, Clim. Dynam., 34, 1115–1128, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0577-9, 2010.
Küttel, M., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends, Clim. Dynam., 36, 957–972, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0737-y, 2011.
Lawson, S.: Arthur Frederick Jenkinson, Weather, 60, 27, https://doi.org/10.1256/wea.171.04, 2005.
Lim, Y. K.: The East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection in the North Atlantic: climate impact and relation to Rossby wave propagation, Clim. Dynam., 44, 3211–3222, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2381-4, 2015.
Luterbacher, J. and Pfister, C.: The year without a summer, Nat. Geosci., 8, 246–248, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2404, 2015.
Luterbacher, J., Schmutz, C., Gyalistras, D., Xoplaki, E., and Wanner, H.: Reconstruction of monthly NAO and EU indices back to AD 1675, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2745–2748, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL900576, 1999.
Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Jones, P. D., Davies, T. D., Portis, D., Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F., Von Storch, H., Gyalistras, D., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: Extending North Atlantic oscillation reconstructions back to 1500, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2, 114–124, https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2002.0047, 2001.
Manley, G.: Central England Temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 100, 389–405, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710042511, 1974.
Mann, H. B.: Nonparametric Tests Against Trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187, 1945.
Matthews, T., Mullan, D., Wilby, R. L., Broderick, C., and Murphy, C.: Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes, Clim. Risk Manag., 11, 37–52, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.01.004, 2016.
McCarthy, M., Spillane, S., Walsh, S., and Kendon, M.: The meteorology of the exceptional winter of 2015/2016 across the UK and Ireland, Weather, 71, 305–313, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2823, 2016.
Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693–712, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181, 2005.
Moreno-Chamarro, E., Zanchettin, D., Lohmann, K., Luterbacher, J., and Jungclaus, J.: Winter amplification of the European Little Ice Age cooling by the subpolar gyre, Sci. Rep.-UK, 7, 9981, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07969-0, 2017.
Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R. L.: Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 58, 755–772, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.782407, 2013.
Murphy, C., Noone, S., Duffy, C., Broderick, C., Matthews, T., and Wilby, R. L.: Irish droughts in newspaper archives: rediscovering forgotten hazards?, Weather, 72, 151–155, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2904, 2017.
Murphy, C., Broderick, C., Burt, T. P., Curley, M., Duffy, C., Hall, J., Harrigan, S., Matthews, T. K. R., Macdonald, N., McCarthy, G., McCarthy, M. P., Mullan, D., Noone, S., Osborn, T. J., Ryan, C., Sweeney, J., Thorne, P. W., Walsh, S., and Wilby, R. L.: Island of Ireland monthly rainfall series 1711–2016 (IoI_1711), PANGAEA, https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.887593, 2018.
Nesje, A., Dahl, S. O., Thun, T., and Nordli, Ø.: The “Little Ice Age” glacial expansion in western Scandinavia: summer temperature or winter precipitation?, Clim. Dynam., 30, 789–801, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0324-z, 2008.
Nicholas, F. J. and Glasspoole, J.: General Monthly Rainfall over England and Wales 1727 to 1931, British Rainfall (1931), His Majesty's Stationary Office, London, 299, 1931.
Noone, S., Broderick, C., Duffy, C., Matthews, T., Wilby, R. L., and Murphy, C.: A 250-year drought catalogue for the island of Ireland (1765–2015), Int. J. Climatol., 37, 239–254, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4999, 2017.
Noone, S., Murphy, C., Coll, J., Matthews, T., Mullan, D., Wilby, R. L., and Walsh, S.: Homogenization and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850–2010), Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2837–2853, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4522, 2016.
Parker, D. E., Legg, T. P., and Folland, C. K.: A new daily central England temperature series, 1772–1991, Int. J. Climatol., 12, 317–342, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370120402, 1992.
Pauling, A., Luterbacher, J., Casty, C., and Wanner, H.: 500 years of gridded high-resolution precipitation reconstructions over Europe and the connection to largescale circulation, Clim. Dynam. 26, 387–405, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0090-8, 2006.
Pedgley, D.: A Short History of the British Rainfall Organisation, Royal Meteorological Society: Occasional Papers on Meteorological History, The Royal Meteorological Society, Reading, 5, 2002.
Pettitt, A. N.: A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem, J. R. Stat. Soc. C-Appl., 28, 126–135, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346729, 1979.
Rinne, K. T., Loader, N. J., Switsur, V. R., and Waterhouse, J. S.: 400-year May–August precipitation reconstruction for Southern England using oxygen isotopes in tree rings, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 60, 13–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.10.048, 2013.
Royston, P.: An extension of Shapiro and Wilk's W test for normality to large samples, J. Appl. Stat., 31, 115–124, 1982.
Rutty, J.: A Chronological History of the Weather and Seasons, and of the Prevailing Diseases in Dublin: With Their Various Periods, Successions, and Revolutions, During the Space of Forty Years. With a Comparative View of the Difference of the Irish Climate and Diseases, and Those of England and Other Countries, Robinson and Roberts, London, 1770.
Ryan, C., Duffy, C., Broderick, C., Thorne, P. W., Curley, M., Walsh, S., Daly, C., Treanor, M., and Murphy, C.: Integrating data rescue into the classroom, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., in review, 2018.
Sanderson, M. G.: Daily weather in Dublin 1716–1734: the diary of Isaac Butler, Weather, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3029, online first, 2017.
Schmidt, A., Thordarson, T., Oman, L. D., Robock, A., and Self, S.: Climatic impact of the long-lasting 1783 Laki eruption: Inapplicability of mass-independent sulfur isotopic composition measurements, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 117, D23116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018414, 2012.
Shields, L.: The Beginnings of Scientific Weather Observation in Ireland (1684–1708), Weather, 38, 304–311, 1983.
Slonosky, V. C.: Wet winters, dry summers? Three centuries of precipitation data from Paris, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 34-1–34-4, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL014302, 2002.
Snedecor, G. W. and Cochran, W. G.: Statistical Methods, Eighth Edition, Iowa State University Press, Ames, IA, 1989.
Symons, G. J.: First Approximation to fluctuations of rainfall 1727 to 1865. Report of the Thirty-Sixth meeting of the British Association for the advancement of Science. London. Archive copy from the Natural History Museum London. Pp. 286, 1866.
Tabony, R. C.: A set of homogeneous European rainfall series, Meteorological 13 Branch Memorandum No. 104, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK, 1980.
Tabony, R. C.: A principal component and spectral analysis of European rainfall, J. Climate, 1, 283–294, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370010307, 1981.
Thordarson, T. and Self, S.: Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783–1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 108, AAC 7-1–AAC 7-29, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD002042, 2003.
Todd, B., Macdonald, N., Chiverrell, R. C., Caminade, C., and Hooke, J. M.: Severity, duration and frequency of drought in SE England from 1697–2011, Climatic Change, 121, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0970-6, 2013.
Todd, B., Macdonald, N., and Chiverrell, R. C.: Revision and extension of the composite Carlisle rainfall record, northwest England: 1757–2012, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3593–3607, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4233, 2015.
Tyrrell, J. G.: Paraclimatic statistics and the study of climate change: The case of the Cork region in the 1750s, Climatic Change, 29, 231–245, 1995.
Vallack, H., Loader, N. J., Young, G., McCarroll, D., and Brown, D.: Stable oxygen isotopes in Irish oaks: potential for reconstructing local and regional climate, Irish Geography, 49, 55–70, 2016.
Veale, L. and Endfield, G. H.: Situating 1816, the “year without summer”, in the UK, Geogr. J., 182, 318–330, https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12191, 2016.
Wakefield, E.: An Account of Ireland, Statistical and Political, Volume 1, Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme and Brown, London, available at: https://archive.org/details/accountofireland01wake (last access: 26 March 2018), 1812.
Wales-Smith, B. G.: Monthly and annual totals of rainfall representative of Kew, Surrey, from 1697 to 1970, Meteorol. Mag., 100, 345–360, 1971.
Wales-Smith, B. G.: Revised monthly and annual totals of rainfall representative of Kew, Surrey for 1697–1870 and an updated analysis for 1697–1976, Hydrol. Memo. No. 43, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, 1980.
Walker, M.: The man behind the British Rainfall Organisation, Weather, 65, 117–120, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.595, 2010.
Wang, W., Chen, X., Shi, P., and van Gelder, P. H. A. J. M.: Detecting changes in extreme precipitation and extreme streamflow in the Dongjiang River Basin in southern China, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 207–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-207-2008, 2008.
Wheeler, D., Garcıa-Herrera, R., Wilkinson, C. W., and Ward, C.: Atmospheric circulation and storminess derived from Royal Navy logbooks: 1685 to 1750, Climatic Change, 101, 257–280, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9732-x, 2010.
Wigley, T. M. L., Lough, J. M., and Jones, P. D.: Spatial patterns of precipitation in England and Wales and a revised, homogeneous England and Wales precipitation series, Int. J. Climatol., 4, 1–25, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370040102, 1984.
Wilby, R. L. and Barker, P. A.: Wettest December in the Lake District for over 200 years, Weather, 71, 76–76, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2711, 2016.
Wilby, R. L., Noone, S., Murphy, C., Matthews, T., Harrigan, S., and Broderick, C.: An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network, Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2854–2865, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523, 2016.
Wilson, R., Miles, D., Loader, N. J., Melvin, T., Cunningham, L., Cooper, R., and Briffa, K.: A millennial long March–July precipitation reconstruction for southern-central England, Clim. Dynam., 40, 997–1017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1318-z, 2013.
Wilby, R. L., Clifford, N. J., De Luca, P., Harrigan, S., Hillier, J. K., Hodgkins, R., Johnson, M. F., Matthews, T. K. R., Murphy, C., Noone, S. J., Parry, S., Prudhomme, C., Rice, S. P., Slater, L. J., Smith, K. A., and Wood, P. J.: The “dirty dozen” of freshwater science: detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors, WIRES Water, 4, e1209, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1209, 2017.
Worley, S. J., Woodruff, S. D., Reynolds, R. W., Lubker, S. J., and Lott, N.: ICOADS release 2.1 data and products, Int. J. Climatol. 25, 823–842, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1166, 2005.
Short summary
This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals remarkable variability in decadal rainfall – far in excess of the typical period of digitised data. Notably, the series sheds light on exceptionally wet winters in the 1730s and wet summers in the 1750s. The derived record, one of the longest continuous series in Europe, offers a firm basis for benchmarking other long-term records and reconstructions of past climate both locally and across Europe.
This work reconstructs a continuous 305-year rainfall record for Ireland. The series reveals...
