Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-665-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 May 2018
Research article |
| 28 May 2018
Placing the Common Era in a Holocene context: millennial to centennial patterns and trends in the hydroclimate of North America over the past 2000 years
Roy J. Shlemon Center for Quaternary Studies, Department of
Geology and Geophysics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming,
82071, USA
Cody Routson
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Nicholas McKay
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Sherilyn Fritz
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of
Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska, 68588, USA
Darrell Kaufman
School of Earth Sciences & Environmental Sustainability,
Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011, USA
Matthew E. Kirby
Department of Geological Sciences, California State
University, Fullerton, Fullerton, California, 92834, USA
Connor Nolan
Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Arizona,
85721, USA
Gregory T. Pederson
Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological
Survey, Bozeman, Montana, 59715, USA
Jeannine-Marie St-Jacques
Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia
University, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada
Related authors
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum- a mismatch between data- and model- inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth System Models.
Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial-to-millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial-to-millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7000 yr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake-level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Christopher L. Hancock, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, and Sylvia G. Dee
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-746, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct global hydroclimate anomalies for the past 21,000 years using a data assimilation methodology blending observations recorded in lake sediments with the climate dynamics simulated by climate models. The reconstruction resolves data-model disagreement in East Africa and North America, and we find that changing global temperatures and associated circulation patterns as well as orbital forcing are the dominant controls on global precipitation over this interval.
Laura J. Larocca, James M. Lea, Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Megan Phillips, Kara A. Lamantia, and Darrell S. Kaufman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-522, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-522, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we present summer snowline altitude (SLA) timeseries for 269 Arctic glaciers. Between 1984 and 2022, SLAs rose ~150 m, equating to a ~127 m shift per 1 °C of summer warming. SLA is most strongly correlated with annual temperature variables, highlighting their dual effect on ablation and accumulation processes. We show that SLAs are rising fastest on low elevation glaciers, and that >50 % of the studied glaciers may be doomed to disappear by 2100 if the mean rate of SLA rise is maintained.
Andria Dawson, John W. Williams, Marie-José Gaillard, Simon J. Goring, Behnaz Pirzamanbein, Johan Lindstrom, R. Scott Anderson, Andrea Brunelle, David Foster, Konrad Gajewski, Dan G. Gavin, Terri Lacourse, Thomas A. Minckley, Wyatt Oswald, Bryan Shuman, and Cathy Whitlock
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2024-6, 2024
Preprint under review for CP
Short summary
Short summary
Holocene vegetation-atmosphere interactions provide insight into intensifying land use impacts and the Holocene Conundrum- a mismatch between data- and model- inferred temperature. Using pollen records and statistical modeling, we reconstruct Holocene land cover for North America. We determine patterns and magnitudes of land cover changes across scales. We attribute land cover changes to ecological, climatic, and human drivers. These reconstructions provide benchmarks for Earth System Models.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Martin Jakobsson, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 5, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-5-285-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We report aspartic and glutamic acid racemization analyses on Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi from the Arctic Ocean (AO). The rates of racemization in the species are compared. Calibrating the rate of racemization in C. wuellerstorfi for the past 400 ka allows the estimation of sample ages from the central AO. Estimated ages are older than existing age assignments (as previously observed for N. pachyderma), confirming that differences are not due to taxonomic effects.
Rachel M. Walter, Hussein R. Sayani, Thomas Felis, Kim M. Cobb, Nerilie J. Abram, Ariella K. Arzey, Alyssa R. Atwood, Logan D. Brenner, Émilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Bethany Ellis, Julien Emile-Geay, Matthew J. Fischer, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Jessica A. Hargreaves, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Hedwig Krawczyk, Nicholas P. McKay, Andrea L. Moore, Sujata A. Murty, Maria Rosabelle Ong, Riovie D. Ramos, Emma V. Reed, Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Sara C. Sanchez, Jens Zinke, and the PAGES CoralHydro2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2081–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2081-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurately quantifying how the global hydrological cycle will change in the future remains challenging due to the limited availability of historical climate data from the tropics. Here we present the CoralHydro2k database – a new compilation of peer-reviewed coral-based climate records from the last 2000 years. This paper details the records included in the database and where the database can be accessed and demonstrates how the database can investigate past tropical climate variability.
Jan Petřík, Katarína Adameková, Sándor Kele, Rastislav Milovský, Libor Petr, Peter Tóth, and Nicholas McKay
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-118, 2023
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Our analysis of the Santovka sedimentary record in Slovakia uncovered two major climate shifts at 8.2 and 7.4 ka BP. These shifts likely impacted temperature and humidity, and/or air mass circulation, and were caused by the drying of the lake at 7.4 ka BP. The sedimentary infill provides important information on the region's past climate, and future research must focus on its impact on the last hunter gatherers and first farmers in the context of spreading agriculture in Europe.
Michael P. Erb, Nicholas P. McKay, Nathan Steiger, Sylvia Dee, Chris Hancock, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Lauren J. Gregoire, and Paul Valdes
Clim. Past, 18, 2599–2629, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To look at climate over the past 12 000 years, we reconstruct spatial temperature using natural climate archives and information from model simulations. Our results show mild global mean warmth around 6000 years ago, which differs somewhat from past reconstructions. Undiagnosed seasonal biases in the data could explain some of the observed temperature change, but this still would not explain the large difference between many reconstructions and climate models over this period.
Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial-to-millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial-to-millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7000 yr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake-level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
Stephanie H. Arcusa, Nicholas P. McKay, Charlotte Wiman, Sela Patterson, Samuel E. Munoz, and Marco A. Aquino-López
Geochronology, 4, 409–433, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Annually banded lake sediment can track environmental change with high resolution in locations where alternatives are not available. Yet, information about chronology is often affected by poor appearance. Traditional methods struggle with these records. To overcome this obstacle we demonstrate a Bayesian approach that combines information from radiocarbon dating and laminations on cores from Columbine Lake, Colorado, expanding possibilities for producing high-resolution records globally.
David T. Liefert and Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past, 18, 1109–1124, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-1109-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A large drought potentially occurred roughly 4200 years ago, but its impacts and significance are unclear. We find new evidence in carbonate oxygen isotopes from a mountain lake in southeastern Wyoming, southern Rocky Mountains, of an abrupt reduction in effective moisture (precipitation–evaporation) or snowpack from approximately 4200–4000 years ago. The drought's prominence among a growing number of sites in the North American interior suggests it was a regionally substantial climate event.
Darrell S. Kaufman and Nicholas P. McKay
Clim. Past, 18, 911–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century timescales.
Lauren J. Davies, Britta J. L. Jensen, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology, 4, 121–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-121-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Subarctic and Arctic lake sediments provide key data to understand natural climate variability and future climate change. However, they can be difficult to date accurately and of limited use without a robust chronology. We use volcanic ash deposits from the last ~4000 BP to identify anomalously old radiocarbon ages at Cascade Lake, Alaska. A provisional ~15 000-year Bayesian age model is produced for the lake, and a new location for ash from five Late Holocene eruptions is reported.
Douglas P. Steen, Joseph S. Stoner, Jason P. Briner, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Geochronology Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2021-19, 2021
Publication in GChron not foreseen
Short summary
Short summary
Paleomagnetic data from Cascade Lake (Brooks Range, Alaska) extend the radiometric-based age model of the sedimentary sequence extending back 21 kyr. Correlated ages based on prominent features in paleomagnetic secular variations (PSV) diverge from the radiometric ages in the upper 1.6 m, by up to about 2000 years at around 4 ka. Four late Holocene cryptotephra in this section support the PSV chronology and suggest the influence of hard water or aged organic material.
Cody C. Routson, Darrell S. Kaufman, Nicholas P. McKay, Michael P. Erb, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Kendrick J. Brown, Matthew E. Kirby, Jeremiah P. Marsicek, R. Scott Anderson, Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno, Jessica R. Rodysill, Matthew S. Lachniet, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Joseph R. Bennett, Michelle F. Goman, Sarah E. Metcalfe, Jennifer M. Galloway, Gerrit Schoups, David B. Wahl, Jesse L. Morris, Francisca Staines-Urías, Andria Dawson, Bryan N. Shuman, Daniel G. Gavin, Jeffrey S. Munroe, and Brian F. Cumming
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1613–1632, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1613-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a curated database of western North American Holocene paleoclimate records, which have been screened on length, resolution, and geochronology. The database gathers paleoclimate time series that reflect temperature, hydroclimate, or circulation features from terrestrial and marine sites, spanning a region from Mexico to Alaska. This publicly accessible collection will facilitate a broad range of paleoclimate inquiry.
Petra Zahajská, Carolina Olid, Johanna Stadmark, Sherilyn C. Fritz, Sophie Opfergelt, and Daniel J. Conley
Biogeosciences, 18, 2325–2345, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2325-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2325-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The drivers of high accumulation of single-cell siliceous algae (diatoms) in a high-latitude lake have not been fully characterized before. We studied silicon cycling of the lake through water, radon, silicon, and stable silicon isotope balances. Results showed that groundwater brings 3 times more water and dissolved silica than the stream inlet. We demonstrate that groundwater discharge and low sediment deposition have driven the high diatom accumulation in the studied lake in the past century.
Nicholas P. McKay, Julien Emile-Geay, and Deborah Khider
Geochronology, 3, 149–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-149-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes geoChronR, an R package that streamlines the process of quantifying age uncertainties, propagating uncertainties through several common analyses, and visualizing the results. In addition to describing the structure and underlying theory of the package, we present five real-world use cases that illustrate common workflows in geoChronR. geoChronR is built on the Linked PaleoData framework, is open and extensible, and we welcome feedback and contributions from the community.
Erich Peitzsch, Jordy Hendrikx, Daniel Stahle, Gregory Pederson, Karl Birkeland, and Daniel Fagre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 533–557, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-533-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We sampled 647 trees from 12 avalanche paths to investigate large snow avalanches over the past 400 years in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Sizable avalanches occur approximately every 3 years across the region. Our results emphasize the importance of sample size, scale, and spatial extent when reconstructing avalanche occurrence across a region. This work can be used for infrastructure planning and avalanche forecasting operations.
Chris S. M. Turney, Richard T. Jones, Nicholas P. McKay, Erik van Sebille, Zoë A. Thomas, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand, and Christopher J. Fogwill
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 3341–3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3341-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Last Interglacial (129–116 ka) experienced global temperatures and sea levels higher than today. The direct contribution of warmer conditions to global sea level (thermosteric) are uncertain. We report a global network of sea surface temperatures. We find mean global annual temperature anomalies of 0.2 ± 0.1˚C and an early maximum peak of 0.9 ± 0.1˚C. Our reconstruction suggests warmer waters contributed on average 0.08 ± 0.1 m and a peak contribution of 0.39 ± 0.1 m to global sea level.
Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Sandy P. Harrison, Pascale Braconnot, Charles J. R. Williams, David J. R. Thornalley, Xiaoxu Shi, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Rumi Ohgaito, Darrell S. Kaufman, Masa Kageyama, Julia C. Hargreaves, Michael P. Erb, Julien Emile-Geay, Roberta D'Agostino, Deepak Chandan, Matthieu Carré, Partrick J. Bartlein, Weipeng Zheng, Zhongshi Zhang, Qiong Zhang, Hu Yang, Evgeny M. Volodin, Robert A. Tomas, Cody Routson, W. Richard Peltier, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Polina A. Morozova, Nicholas P. McKay, Gerrit Lohmann, Allegra N. Legrande, Chuncheng Guo, Jian Cao, Esther Brady, James D. Annan, and Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Clim. Past, 16, 1847–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an initial exploration and comparison to climate reconstructions of the new climate model simulations of the mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). These use state-of-the-art models developed for CMIP6 and apply the same experimental set-up. The models capture several key aspects of the climate, but some persistent issues remain.
Bronwen L. Konecky, Nicholas P. McKay, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Laia Comas-Bru, Emilie P. Dassié, Kristine L. DeLong, Georgina M. Falster, Matt J. Fischer, Matthew D. Jones, Lukas Jonkers, Darrell S. Kaufman, Guillaume Leduc, Shreyas R. Managave, Belen Martrat, Thomas Opel, Anais J. Orsi, Judson W. Partin, Hussein R. Sayani, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Diane M. Thompson, Jonathan J. Tyler, Nerilie J. Abram, Alyssa R. Atwood, Olivier Cartapanis, Jessica L. Conroy, Mark A. Curran, Sylvia G. Dee, Michael Deininger, Dmitry V. Divine, Zoltán Kern, Trevor J. Porter, Samantha L. Stevenson, Lucien von Gunten, and Iso2k Project Members
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2261–2288, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2261-2020, 2020
Lukas Jonkers, Olivier Cartapanis, Michael Langner, Nick McKay, Stefan Mulitza, Anne Strack, and Michal Kucera
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1053–1081, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1053-2020, 2020
Paul D. Zander, Sönke Szidat, Darrell S. Kaufman, Maurycy Żarczyński, Anna I. Poraj-Górska, Petra Boltshauser-Kaltenrieder, and Martin Grosjean
Geochronology, 2, 63–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-63-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-2-63-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Recent technological advances allow researchers to obtain radiocarbon ages from smaller samples than previously possible. We investigate the reliability and precision of radiocarbon ages obtained from miniature (11–150 μg C) samples of terrestrial plant fragments taken from sediment cores from Lake Żabińskie, Poland. We further investigate how sampling density (the number of ages per 1000 years) and sample mass (which is related to age precision) influence the performance of age–depth models.
Ellie Broadman, Lorna L. Thurston, Erik Schiefer, Nicholas P. McKay, David Fortin, Jason Geck, Michael G. Loso, Matt Nolan, Stéphanie H. Arcusa, Christopher W. Benson, Rebecca A. Ellerbroek, Michael P. Erb, Cody C. Routson, Charlotte Wiman, A. Jade Wong, and Darrell S. Kaufman
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1957–1970, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Rapid climate warming is impacting physical processes in Arctic environments. Glacier–fed lakes are influenced by many of these processes, and they are impacted by the changing behavior of weather, glaciers, and rivers. We present data from weather stations, river gauging stations, lake moorings, and more, following 4 years of environmental monitoring in the watershed of Lake Peters, a glacier–fed lake in Arctic Alaska. These data can help us study the changing dynamics of this remote setting.
Gabriel West, Darrell S. Kaufman, Francesco Muschitiello, Matthias Forwick, Jens Matthiessen, Jutta Wollenburg, and Matt O'Regan
Geochronology, 1, 53–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-1-53-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We report amino acid racemization analyses of foraminifera from well-dated sediment cores from the Yermak Plateau, Arctic Ocean. Sample ages are compared with model predictions, revealing that the rates of racemization generally conform to a global compilation of racemization rates at deep-sea sites. These results highlight the need for further studies to test and explain the origin of the purportedly high rate of racemization indicated by previous analyses of central Arctic sediments.
Chris S. M. Turney, Helen V. McGregor, Pierre Francus, Nerilie Abram, Michael N. Evans, Hugues Goosse, Lucien von Gunten, Darrell Kaufman, Hans Linderholm, Marie-France Loutre, and Raphael Neukom
Clim. Past, 15, 611–615, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This PAGES (Past Global Changes) 2k (climate of the past 2000 years working group) special issue of Climate of the Past brings together the latest understanding of regional change and impacts from PAGES 2k groups across a range of proxies and regions. The special issue has emerged from a need to determine the magnitude and rate of change of regional and global climate beyond the timescales accessible within the observational record.
Richard H. Levy, Gavin B. Dunbar, Marcus J. Vandergoes, Jamie D. Howarth, Tony Kingan, Alex R. Pyne, Grant Brotherston, Michael Clarke, Bob Dagg, Matthew Hill, Evan Kenton, Steve Little, Darcy Mandeno, Chris Moy, Philip Muldoon, Patrick Doyle, Conrad Raines, Peter Rutland, Delia Strong, Marianna Terezow, Leise Cochrane, Remo Cossu, Sean Fitzsimons, Fabio Florindo, Alexander L. Forrest, Andrew R. Gorman, Darrell S. Kaufman, Min Kyung Lee, Xun Li, Pontus Lurcock, Nicholas McKay, Faye Nelson, Jennifer Purdie, Heidi A. Roop, S. Geoffrey Schladow, Abha Sood, Phaedra Upton, Sharon L. Walker, and Gary S. Wilson
Sci. Dril., 24, 41–50, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-24-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-24-41-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
A new annually resolvable sedimentary record of southern hemisphere climate has been recovered from Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand. The Lake Ohau Climate History (LOCH) Project acquired cores from two sites that preserve an 80 m thick sequence of laminated mud that accumulated since the lake formed ~ 17 000 years ago. Cores were recovered using a purpose-built barge and drilling system designed to recover soft sediment from relatively thick sedimentary sequences at water depths up to 100 m.
Darrell S. Kaufman and PAGES 2k special-issue editorial team
Clim. Past, 14, 593–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-593-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We explain the procedure used to attain a high and consistent level of data stewardship across a special issue of the journal Climate of the Past. We discuss the challenges related to (1) determining which data are essential for public archival, (2) using data generated by others, and (3) understanding data citations. We anticipate that open-data sharing in paleo sciences will accelerate as the advantages become more evident and as practices that reduce data loss become the accepted convention.
Jennifer R. Marlon, Neil Pederson, Connor Nolan, Simon Goring, Bryan Shuman, Ann Robertson, Robert Booth, Patrick J. Bartlein, Melissa A. Berke, Michael Clifford, Edward Cook, Ann Dieffenbacher-Krall, Michael C. Dietze, Amy Hessl, J. Bradford Hubeny, Stephen T. Jackson, Jeremiah Marsicek, Jason McLachlan, Cary J. Mock, David J. P. Moore, Jonathan Nichols, Dorothy Peteet, Kevin Schaefer, Valerie Trouet, Charles Umbanhowar, John W. Williams, and Zicheng Yu
Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To improve our understanding of paleoclimate in the northeastern (NE) US, we compiled data from pollen, tree rings, lake levels, testate amoeba from bogs, and other proxies from the last 3000 years. The paleoclimate synthesis supports long-term cooling until the 1800s and reveals an abrupt transition from wet to dry conditions around 550–750 CE. Evidence suggests the region is now becoming warmer and wetter, but more calibrated data are needed, especially to capture multidecadal variability.
Nicholas P. McKay and Julien Emile-Geay
Clim. Past, 12, 1093–1100, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1093-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The lack of accepted data formats and data standards in paleoclimatology is a growing problem that slows progress in the field. Here, we propose a preliminary data standard for paleoclimate data, general enough to accommodate all the proxy and measurement types encountered in a large international collaboration (PAGES 2k). We also introduce a data format for such structured data (Linked Paleo Data, or LiPD), leveraging recent advances in knowledge representation (Linked Open Data).
P. A. Baker, S. C. Fritz, C. G. Silva, C. A. Rigsby, M. L. Absy, R. P. Almeida, M. Caputo, C. M. Chiessi, F. W. Cruz, C. W. Dick, S. J. Feakins, J. Figueiredo, K. H. Freeman, C. Hoorn, C. Jaramillo, A. K. Kern, E. M. Latrubesse, M. P. Ledru, A. Marzoli, A. Myrbo, A. Noren, W. E. Piller, M. I. F. Ramos, C. C. Ribas, R. Trnadade, A. J. West, I. Wahnfried, and D. A. Willard
Sci. Dril., 20, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-41-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-20-41-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We report on a planned Trans-Amazon Drilling Project (TADP) that will continuously sample Late Cretaceous to modern sediment in a transect along the equatorial Amazon of Brazil, from the Andean foreland to the Atlantic Ocean. The TADP will document the evolution of the Neotropical forest and will link biotic diversification to changes in the physical environment, including climate, tectonism, and landscape. We will also sample the ca. 200Ma basaltic sills that underlie much of the Amazon.
H. S. Sundqvist, D. S. Kaufman, N. P. McKay, N. L. Balascio, J. P. Briner, L. C. Cwynar, H. P. Sejrup, H. Seppä, D. A. Subetto, J. T. Andrews, Y. Axford, J. Bakke, H. J. B. Birks, S. J. Brooks, A. de Vernal, A. E. Jennings, F. C. Ljungqvist, K. M. Rühland, C. Saenger, J. P. Smol, and A. E. Viau
Clim. Past, 10, 1605–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1605-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Subject: Atmospheric Dynamics | Archive: Terrestrial Archives | Timescale: Holocene
Regional pollen-based Holocene temperature and precipitation patterns depart from the Northern Hemisphere mean trends
Mid-Holocene reinforcement of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation variability from a western Baltic lake sediment record
Patterns of Centennial-to-Millennial Holocene Climate Variation in the North American Mid-Latitudes
Holocene sea level and environmental change at the southern Cape – an 8.5 kyr multi-proxy paleoclimate record from Lake Voëlvlei, South Africa
Tree-ring-based spring precipitation reconstruction in the Sikhote-Alin' Mountain range
Radionuclide wiggle matching reveals a nonsynchronous early Holocene climate oscillation in Greenland and western Europe around a grand solar minimum
Hydrological variations in central China over the past millennium and their links to the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans
Atmospheric blocking induced by the strengthened Siberian High led to drying in west Asia during the 4.2 ka BP event – a hypothesis
Hydro-climatic variability in the southwestern Indian Ocean between 6000 and 3000 years ago
Evidence for increased expression of the Amundsen Sea Low over the South Atlantic during the late Holocene
The 4.2 ka BP event: multi-proxy records from a closed lake in the northern margin of the East Asian summer monsoon
Drought and vegetation change in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains: potential climatic mechanisms associated with megadrought conditions at 4200 cal yr BP
Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions
Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks
Periodic input of dust over the Eastern Carpathians during the Holocene linked with Saharan desertification and human impact
Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains
A 250-year periodicity in Southern Hemisphere westerly winds over the last 2600 years
Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns
The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison
Late Holocene summer temperatures in the central Andes reconstructed from the sediments of high-elevation Laguna Chepical, Chile (32° S)
Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series
Precipitation variability in the winter rainfall zone of South Africa during the last 1400 yr linked to the austral westerlies
Relationship between Holocene climate variations over southern Greenland and eastern Baffin Island and synoptic circulation pattern
Ulrike Herzschuh, Thomas Böhmer, Manuel Chevalier, Raphaël Hébert, Anne Dallmeyer, Chenzhi Li, Xianyong Cao, Odile Peyron, Larisa Nazarova, Elena Y. Novenko, Jungjae Park, Natalia A. Rudaya, Frank Schlütz, Lyudmila S. Shumilovskikh, Pavel E. Tarasov, Yongbo Wang, Ruilin Wen, Qinghai Xu, and Zhuo Zheng
Clim. Past, 19, 1481–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1481-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A mismatch between model- and proxy-based Holocene climate change may partially originate from the poor spatial coverage of climate reconstructions. Here we investigate quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature and annual precipitation from 1908 pollen records in the Northern Hemisphere. Trends show strong latitudinal patterns and differ between (sub-)continents. Our work contributes to a better understanding of the global mean.
Markus Czymzik, Rik Tjallingii, Birgit Plessen, Peter Feldens, Martin Theuerkauf, Matthias Moros, Markus J. Schwab, Carla K. M. Nantke, Silvia Pinkerneil, Achim Brauer, and Helge W. Arz
Clim. Past, 19, 233–248, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-233-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Productivity increases in Lake Kälksjön sediments during the last 9600 years are likely driven by the progressive millennial-scale winter warming in northwestern Europe, following the increasing Northern Hemisphere winter insolation and decadal to centennial periods of a more positive NAO polarity. Strengthened productivity variability since ∼5450 cal yr BP is hypothesized to reflect a reinforcement of NAO-like atmospheric circulation.
Bryan N. Shuman
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2022-89, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
A gap in understanding climate variation exists at centennial-to-millennial scales, particularly for warm climates. Such variations challenge detection. They exceed direct observation but are geologically short. Centennial-to-millennial variations that may have influenced North America were examined over the past 7000 yr. Significant patterns were detected from fossil pollen and sedimentary lake-level changes, indicating ecological, hydrological, and likely human significance.
Paul Strobel, Marcel Bliedtner, Andrew S. Carr, Peter Frenzel, Björn Klaes, Gary Salazar, Julian Struck, Sönke Szidat, Roland Zech, and Torsten Haberzettl
Clim. Past, 17, 1567–1586, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1567-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-1567-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a multi-proxy record from Lake Voёlvlei and provides new insights into the sea level and paleoclimate history of the past 8.5 ka at South Africa’s southern Cape coast. Our results show that sea level changes at the southern coast are in good agreement with the western coast of South Africa. In terms of climate our record provides valuable insights into changing sources of precipitation at the southern Cape coast, i.e. westerly- and easterly-derived precipitation contribution.
Olga Ukhvatkina, Alexander Omelko, Dmitriy Kislov, Alexander Zhmerenetsky, Tatyana Epifanova, and Jan Altman
Clim. Past, 17, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-951-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-951-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first precipitation reconstructions for three sites along a latitudinal gradient in the Sikhote-Alin' mountains (Russian Far East). The reconstructions are based on Korean pine tree rings. We found that an important limiting factor for this species growth was precipitation during the spring-to-early-summer period. The periodicity found in our reconstructions suggests the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Dedacadal Oscillation on the region's climate.
Florian Mekhaldi, Markus Czymzik, Florian Adolphi, Jesper Sjolte, Svante Björck, Ala Aldahan, Achim Brauer, Celia Martin-Puertas, Göran Possnert, and Raimund Muscheler
Clim. Past, 16, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1145-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Due to chronology uncertainties within paleoclimate archives, it is unclear how climate oscillations from different records relate to one another. By using radionuclides to synchronize Greenland ice cores and a German lake record over 11 000 years, we show that two oscillations observed in these records were not synchronous but terminated and began with the onset of a grand solar minimum. Both this and changes in ocean circulation could have played a role in the two climate oscillations.
Fucai Duan, Zhenqiu Zhang, Yi Wang, Jianshun Chen, Zebo Liao, Shitao Chen, Qingfeng Shao, and Kan Zhao
Clim. Past, 16, 475–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-475-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-475-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct a detailed history of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using stalagmite records in central China during the last millennium. We estimate responses of the EASM to anthropogenic global warming by comparing its relative intensity between the Current Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, two recent warm periods. We also study potential links of the EASM to the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. This work advances our understanding of EASM dynamics.
Aurel Perşoiu, Monica Ionita, and Harvey Weiss
Clim. Past, 15, 781–793, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-781-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present a reconstruction of winter climate around 4.2 ka cal BP in Europe, west Asia, and northern Africa that shows generally low temperatures and heterogeneously distributed precipitation. We hypothesize that in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere the 4.2 ka BP event was caused by the strengthening and expansion of the Siberian High, which effectively blocked the moisture-carrying westerlies from reaching west Asia and also resulted in outbreaks of northerly cold and dry winds.
Hanying Li, Hai Cheng, Ashish Sinha, Gayatri Kathayat, Christoph Spötl, Aurèle Anquetil André, Arnaud Meunier, Jayant Biswas, Pengzhen Duan, Youfeng Ning, and Richard Lawrence Edwards
Clim. Past, 14, 1881–1891, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1881-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1881-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The
4.2 ka eventbetween 4.2 and 3.9 ka has been widely discussed in the Northern Hemsiphere but less reported in the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we use speleothem records from Rodrigues in the southwestern Indian Ocean spanning from 6000 to 3000 years ago to investigate the regional hydro-climatic variability. Our records show no evidence for an unusual climate anomaly between 4.2 and 3.9 ka. Instead, it shows a multi-centennial drought between 3.9 and 3.5 ka.
Zoë A. Thomas, Richard T. Jones, Chris J. Fogwill, Jackie Hatton, Alan N. Williams, Alan Hogg, Scott Mooney, Philip Jones, David Lister, Paul Mayewski, and Chris S. M. Turney
Clim. Past, 14, 1727–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1727-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We report a high-resolution study of a 5000-year-long peat record from the Falkland Islands. This area sensitive to the dynamics of the Amundsen Sea Low, which plays a major role in modulating the Southern Ocean climate. We find wetter, colder conditions between 5.0 and 2.5 ka due to enhanced southerly airflow, with the establishment of drier and warmer conditions from 2.5 ka to present. This implies more westerly airflow and the increased projection of the ASL onto the South Atlantic.
Jule Xiao, Shengrui Zhang, Jiawei Fan, Ruilin Wen, Dayou Zhai, Zhiping Tian, and Dabang Jiang
Clim. Past, 14, 1417–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1417-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1417-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple proxies of a sediment core at Hulun Lake in the northern margin of the EASM reveal a prominent dry event at the interval of 4210–3840 cal. yr BP that could be the regional manifestation of the 4.2 ka BP event. Future studies should be focused on the investigation of high-quality, high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive and geographically representative regions in order to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of the 4.2 ka BP event and the associated dynamic mechanism.
Vachel A. Carter, Jacqueline J. Shinker, and Jonathon Preece
Clim. Past, 14, 1195–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1195-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1195-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Between 4200 and 4000 cal yr BP, paleoecological evidence suggests a megadrought occurred in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains. Modern climate analogues were used to explore potential climate mechanisms responsible for the ecological changes. Analogues illustrate that warm and dry conditions persisted through the growing season as a result of anomalously higher-than-normal heights centred over the Great Plains which suppressed moisture transport to the region.
Mandy Freund, Benjamin J. Henley, David J. Karoly, Kathryn J. Allen, and Patrick J. Baker
Clim. Past, 13, 1751–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
To understand how climate change will influence Australian rainfall we must first understand the long-term context of droughts and floods. We reconstruct warm and cool season rainfall in Australia's eight major climatic regions for several centuries into the past, building the clearest picture yet of long-term rainfall variability across the Australian continent. We find recent rainfall increases in the warm season in the north, and declines in the cool season in the south, to be highly unusual.
Jasper G. Franke, Johannes P. Werner, and Reik V. Donner
Clim. Past, 13, 1593–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1593-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We apply evolving functional network analysis, a tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure, to a set of
Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to
long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We obtain a
qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era.
Jack Longman, Daniel Veres, Vasile Ersek, Ulrich Salzmann, Katalin Hubay, Marc Bormann, Volker Wennrich, and Frank Schäbitz
Clim. Past, 13, 897–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-897-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-897-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first record of dust input into an eastern European bog over the past 10 800 years. We find significant changes in past dust deposition, with large inputs related to both natural and human influences. We show evidence that Saharan desertification has had a significant impact on dust deposition in eastern Europe for the past 6100 years.
B. Wilhelm, H. Vogel, C. Crouzet, D. Etienne, and F. S. Anselmetti
Clim. Past, 12, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by reconstructing the Foréant record. Both influences result in a higher flood frequency during past cold periods. Atlantic influences seem to result in more frequent high-intensity flood events during past warm periods, suggesting an increase in flood intensity under the global warming. However, no high-intensity events occurred during the 20th century.
C. S. M. Turney, R. T. Jones, C. Fogwill, J. Hatton, A. N. Williams, A. Hogg, Z. A. Thomas, J. Palmer, S. Mooney, and R. W. Reimer
Clim. Past, 12, 189–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-189-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Southern Hemisphere westerly airflow is considered a major driver of Southern Ocean and global climate. Observational records, however, are limited. Here we present a new Falkland Islands record that exploits "exotic" South America pollen and charcoal to reconstruct changing airflow. We find stronger winds 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, associated with increased burning, and a 250-year periodicity, suggesting solar forcing. Our results have important implications for understanding late Holocene climates.
J. F. Donges, R. V. Donner, N. Marwan, S. F. M. Breitenbach, K. Rehfeld, and J. Kurths
Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-709-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Paleoclimate records from cave deposits allow the reconstruction of Holocene dynamics of the Asian monsoon system, an important tipping element in Earth's climate. Employing recently developed techniques of nonlinear time series analysis reveals several robust and continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoonal variability. These regime shifts might have played an important role as drivers of migration, cultural change, and societal collapse during the past 10,000 years.
A. Mauri, B. A. S. Davis, P. M. Collins, and J. O. Kaplan
Clim. Past, 10, 1925–1938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1925-2014, 2014
R. de Jong, L. von Gunten, A. Maldonado, and M. Grosjean
Clim. Past, 9, 1921–1932, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1921-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1921-2013, 2013
M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, and D. Scholz
Clim. Past, 8, 1637–1648, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012, 2012
J. C. Stager, P. A. Mayewski, J. White, B. M. Chase, F. H. Neumann, M. E. Meadows, C. D. King, and D. A. Dixon
Clim. Past, 8, 877–887, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-877-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-877-2012, 2012
B. Fréchette and A. de Vernal
Clim. Past, 5, 347–359, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-347-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-347-2009, 2009
Cited articles
Andersen, K. K., Ditlevsen, P. D., Rasmussen, S. O., Clausen, H. B., Vinther, B. M., Johnsen, S. J., and Steffensen, J. P.: Retrieving a common accumulation record from Greenland ice cores for the past 1800 years, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006765, 2006.
Anderson, L.: Holocene record of precipitation seasonality from lake calcite δ18O in the central Rocky Mountains, United States, Geology, 39, 211–214, https://doi.org/10.1130/g31575.1, 2011.
Anderson, L.: Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: holocene variability and the role of insolation, ENSO, and the North American Monsoon, Global Planet. Change, 92, 198–208, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.05.012, 2012.
Anderson, L., Abbott, M. B., Finney, B. P., and Burns, S. J.: Regional atmospheric circulation change in the North Pacific during the Holocene inferred from lacustrine carbonate oxygen isotopes, Yukon Territory, Canada, Quaternary Res., 64, 21–35, 2005.
Anderson, L., Abbott, M. B., Finney, B. P., and Burns, S. J.: Late Holocene moisture balance variability in the southwest Yukon Territory, Canada, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 130–141, 2007.
Anderson, L., Berkelhammer, M., and Mast, M. A.: Isotopes in North American Rocky Mountain Snowpack 1993–2014, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 131, 262–273, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.03.023, 2016.
Anderson, N. J., Liversidge, A. C., McGowan, S., and Jones, M. D.: Lake and catchment response to Holocene environmental change: spatial variability along a climate gradient in southwest Greenland, J. Paleolimnol., 48, 209–222, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-012-9616-3, 2012.
Andresen, C. S., Björck, S., Bennike, O., and Bond, G.: Holocene climate changes in southern Greenland: evidence from lake sediments, J. Quaternary Sci., 19, 783–795, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.886, 2004.
Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V. J., Rasmussen, J. B. T., Burns, S. J., and Lachniet, M.: Multidecadal to multicentury scale collapses of Northern Hemisphere monsoons over the past millennium, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 9651–9656, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214870110, 2013.
Ault, T. R., Cole, J. E., Overpeck, J. T., Pederson, G. T., George, S. S., Otto-Bliesner, B., Woodhouse, C. A., and Deser, C.: The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium, J. Climate, 26, 5863–5878, 2013.
Bar-Joseph, Z., Gifford, D. K., and Jaakkola, T. S.: Fast optimal leaf ordering for hierarchical clustering, Bioinformatics, 17, S22–S29, https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/17.suppl_1.S22, 2001.
Benson, L., Kashgarian, M., Rye, R., Lund, S., Paillet, F., Smoot, J., Kester, C., Mensing, S., Meko, D., and Lindström, S.: Holocene multidecadal and multicentennial droughts affecting Northern California and Nevada, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 659–682, 2002.
Boos, D. D.: Introduction to the bootstrap world, Statistical Sci., 18, 168–174, https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1063994971, 2003.
Booth, R. K.: Testate amoebae as proxies for mean annual water-table depth in Sphagnum-dominated peatlands of North America, J. Quaternary Sci., 23, 43–57, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1114, 2008.
Booth, R. K.: Testing the climate sensitivity of peat-based paleoclimate reconstructions in mid-continental North America, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 720–731, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.018, 2010.
Booth, R. K., Notaro, M., Jackson, S. T., and Kutzbach, J. E.: Widespread drought episodes in the western Great Lakes region during the past 2000 year: geological extent and potential mechanisms, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 242, 415–427, 2006.
Booth, R. K., Jackson, S. T., Sousa, V. A., Sullivan, M. E., Minckley, T. A., and Clifford, M. J.: Multi-decadal drought and amplified moisture variability drove rapid forest community change in a humid region, Ecology, 93, 219–226, https://doi.org/10.1890/11-1068.1, 2012.
Braconnot, P., Otto-Bliesner, B., Harrison, S., Joussaume, S., Peterchmitt, J.-Y., Abe-Ouchi, A., Crucifix, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, Th., Hewitt, C. D., Kageyama, M., Kitoh, A., Laîné, A., Loutre, M.-F., Marti, O., Merkel, U., Ramstein, G., Valdes, P., Weber, S. L., Yu, Y., and Zhao, Y.: Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum – Part 1: Experiments and large-scale features, Clim. Past, 3, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-261-2007, 2007.
Buhay, W. M., Simpson, S., Thorleifson, H., Lewis, M., King, J., Telka, A., Wilkinson, P., Babb, J., Timsic, S., and Bailey, D.: A 1000 year record of dry conditions in the eastern Canadian prairies reconstructed from oxygen and carbon isotope measurements on Lake Winnipeg sediment organics, J. Quaternary Sci., 24, 426–436, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1293, 2009.
Cayan, D. R.: Interannual climate variability and snowpack in the western United States, J. Climate, 9, 928–948, 1996.
Chipman, M. L., Clarke, G. H., Clegg, B. F., Gregory-Eaves, I., and Hu, F. S.: A 2000 year record of climatic change at Ongoke Lake, southwest Alaska, J. Paleolimnol., 41, 57–75, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-008-9257-8, 2008.
Clegg, B. F. and Hu, F. S.: An oxygen-isotope record of Holocene climate change in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 928–939, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.009, 2010.
Clifford, M. J. and Booth, R. K.: Increased probability of fire during late Holocene droughts in northern New England, Climatic Change, 119, 693–704, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0771-y, 2013.
Coats, S., Smerdon, J. E., Cook, B. I., and Seager, R.: Are simulated megadroughts in the North American Southwest forced?, J. Climate, 28, 124–142, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00071.1, 2014.
Commission for Environmental Cooperation Working Group: Ecological regions of North America – toward a common perspective, Commission for Environmental Cooperation, Montreal, Canada, available at: http://www3.cec.org/islandora/en/item/1701-ecological-regions-north-america-toward-common-perspective/, last access: 6 September 2017, 1997.
Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Seager, R., and Cook, E. R.: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium, J. Climate, 27, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1, 2013.
Cook, B. I., Ault, T. R., and Smerdon, J. E.: Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Sci. Adv., 1, e1400082, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082, 2015.
Cook, E. R. and Krusic, P. J.: North American summer PDSI reconstructions, version 2a, Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series 46, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center, 2008.
Cook, E. R., Briffa, K. R., Meko, D. M., Graybill, D. A., and Funkhouser, G.: The “segment length curse” in long tree-ring chronology development for paleoclimatic studies, Holocene, 5, 229–237, 1995.
Cook, E. R., Woodhouse, C., Eakin, C. M., Meko, D. M., and Stahle, D. W.: Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States, Science, 306, 1015–1018, 2004.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Stahle, D. W.: North American drought: reconstructions, causes, and consequences, Earth-Sci. Rev., 81, 93–134, 2007.
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Heim, R. R., Vose, R. S., Herweijer, C., and Woodhouse, C.: Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context, J. Quaternary Sci., 25, 48–61, https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1303, 2010.
Cumming, B. F., Laird, K. R., Bennett, J., Smol, J. P., and Salomon, A. K.: Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99, 16117–16121, 2002.
Curtis, J. H., Hodell, D. A., and Brenner, M.: Climate variability on the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico) during the past 3500 years, and implications for Maya cultural evolution, Quaternary Res., 46, 37–47, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.1996.0042, 1996.
Curtis, J. H., Brenner, M., Hodell, D. A., Balser, R. A., Islebe, G. A., and Hooghiemstra, H.: A multi-proxy study of Holocene environmental change in the Maya Lowlands of Peten, Guatemala, J. Paleolimnol., 19, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007968508262, 1998.
Cuven, S., Francus, P., and Lamoureux, S.: Mid to Late Holocene hydroclimatic and geochemical records from the varved sediments of East Lake, Cape Bounty, Canadian High Arctic, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 19–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.05.019, 2011.
Dai, A., Trenberth, K. E., and Karl, T. R.: Global variations in droughts and wet spells: 1990–1995, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3367–3370, 1998.
Dean, W. E.: Rates, timing, and cyclicity of Holocene eolian activity in north-central United States; evidence from varved lake sediments, Geology, 25, 331–334, 1997.
Dean, W. E., Bradbury, J. P., Anderson, R. Y., Bader, L. R., and Dieterich-Rurup, K.: A high-resolution record of climatic change in Elk Lake, Minnesota for the last 1500 years, US Geological Survey report, 1994.
Dettinger, M. D., Cayan, D. R., Diaz, H. F., and Meko, D. M.: North–south precipitation patterns in western North American on interannual-to-decadal time scales, J. Climate, 11, 3095–3111, 1998.
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Ashfaq, M., Shuman, B., Williams, J. W., and Bartlein, P. J.: Summer aridity in the United States: response to mid-Holocene changes in insolation and sea surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L22712, 2006.
Donnelly, J. P., Hawkes, A. D., Lane, P., MacDonald, D., Shuman, B. N., Toomey, M. R., van Hengstum, P. J., and Woodruff, J. D.: Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years, Earths Future, 3, 49–65, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014EF000274, 2015.
Donovan, J. J., Smith, A. J., Panek, V. A., Engstrom, D. R., and Ito, E.: Climate-driven hydrologic transients in lake sediment records: calibration of groundwater conditions using 20th century drought, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 605–624, 2002.
Eisen, M. B., Spellman, P. T., Brown, P. O., and Botstein, D.: Cluster analysis and display of genome-wide expression patterns, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 95, 14863–14868, 1998.
Ersek, V., Clark, P. U., Mix, A. C., Cheng, H., and Lawrence Edwards, R.: Holocene winter climate variability in mid-latitude western North America, Nat. Commun., 3, 1219, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2222, 2012.
Finney, B. P., Bigelow, N. H., Barber, V. A., and Edwards, M. E.: Holocene climate change and carbon cycling in a groundwater-fed, boreal forest lake: Dune Lake, Alaska, J. Paleolimnol., 48, 43–54, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-012-9617-2, 2012.
Fritz, S. C., Ito, E., Yu, Z., Laird, K. R., and Engstrom, D.: Hydrologic variation in the northern Great Plains during the last two millennia, Quaternary Res., 53, 175–184, 2000.
Fuller, T. L., Foster, D. R., McLachlan, T. S., and Drake, N.: Impact of human activity on regional forest composition and dynamics in central New England, Ecosystems, 1, 76–95, 1998.
Fye, F. K., Stahle, D. W., and Cook, E. R.: Paleoclimatic analogs to twentieth-century moisture regimes across the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 901–909, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-84-7-901, 2003.
Gajewski, K.: Late Holocene climate changes in eastern North America estimated from pollen data, Quaternary Res., 29, 255–262, 1988.
Ghil, M., Allen, M. R., Dettinger, M. D., Ide, K., Kondrashov, D., Mann, M. E., Robertson, A. W., Saunders, A., Tian, Y., Varadi, F., and Yiou, P.: Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series, Rev. Geophys., 40, 1003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000RG000092, 2002.
Grimm, E. C.: CONISS: a FORTRAN 77 program for stratigraphically constrained cluster analysis by the method of incremental sum of squares, Comput. Geosci., 13, 13–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/0098-3004(87)90022-7, 1987.
Groisman, P. Y. and Easterling, D. R.: Variability and trends of total precipitation and snowfall over the United States and Canada, J. Climate, 7, 184–205, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<0184:VATOTP>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Harrison, S. P., Kutzbach, J. E., Liu, Z., Bartlein, P. J., Otto-Bliesner, B., Muhs, D., Prentice, I. C., and Thompson, R. S.: Mid-Holocene climates of the Americas: a dynamical response to changed seasonality, Clim. Dynam., 20, 663–688, 2003.
Herweijer, C., Seager, R., Cook, E. R., and Emile-Geay, J.: North American droughts of the last millennium from a gridded network of tree-ring data, J. Climate, 20, 1353–1376, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4042.1, 2007.
Heusser, L. E., Hendy, I. L., and Barron, J. A.: Vegetation response to southern California drought during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and early Little Ice Age (AD 800–1600), Quatern. Int., 387, 23–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2014.09.032, 2015.
Hiner, C. A., Kirby, M. E., Bonuso, N., Patterson, W. P., Palermo, J., and Silveira, E.: Late Holocene hydroclimatic variability linked to Pacific forcing: evidence from Abbott Lake, coastal central California, J. Paleolimnol., 56, 299–313, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-016-9912-4, 2016.
Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., Jones, G. A., Higuera-Gundy, A., Brenner, M., Binford, M. W., and Dorsey, K. T.: Reconstruction of Caribbean climate change over the past 10 500 years, Nature, 352, 790–793, https://doi.org/10.1038/352790a0, 1991.
Hodell, D. A., Curtis, J. H., and Brenner, M.: Possible role of climate in the collapse of classic Maya civilization, Nature, 375, 391–394, 1995.
Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J. H., and Guilderson, T.: Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands, Science, 292, 1367–1370, 2001.
Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J. H., Medina-González, R., Ildefonso-Chan Can, E., Albornaz-Pat, A., and Guilderson, T. P.: Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age, Quaternary Res., 63, 109–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2004.11.004, 2005a.
Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., and Curtis, J. H.: Terminal Classic drought in the northern Maya lowlands inferred from multiple sediment cores in Lake Chichancanab (Mexico), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24, 1413–1427, 2005b.
Jones, T. L. and Schwitalla, A.: Archaeological perspectives on the effects of medieval drought in prehistoric California, Quatern. Int., 188, 41–58, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.07.007, 2008.
Kaufman, D. S., Axford, Y. L., Henderson, A. C. G., McKay, N. P., Oswald, W. W., Saenger, C., Anderson, R. S., Bailey, H. L., Clegg, B., Gajewski, K., Hu, F. S., Jones, M. C., Massa, C., Routson, C. C., Werner, A., Wooller, M. J., and Yu, Z.: Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – a systematic review of multi-proxy evidence, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 147, 312–339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.021, 2016.
Kennett, D. J., Breitenbach, S. F. M., Aquino, V. V., Asmerom, Y., Awe, J., Baldini, J. U. L., Bartlein, P., Culleton, B. J., Ebert, C., Jazwa, C., Macri, M. J., Marwan, N., Polyak, V., Prufer, K. M., Ridley, H. E., Sodemann, H., Winterhalder, B., and Haug, G. H.: Development and disintegration of Maya political systems in response to climate change, Science, 338, 788–791, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1226299, 2012.
Kirby, M. E., Lund, S. P., Patterson, W. P., Anderson, M. A., Bird, B. W., Ivanovici, L., Monarrez, P., and Nielsen, S.: A Holocene record of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)-related hydrologic variability in Southern California (Lake Elsinore, CA), J. Paleolimnol., 44, 819–839, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-010-9454-0, 2010.
Kirby, M. E., Zimmerman, S. R. H., Patterson, W. P., and Rivera, J. J.: A 9170 year record of decadal-to-multi-centennial scale pluvial episodes from the coastal Southwest United States: a role for atmospheric rivers?, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 46, 57–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.05.008, 2012.
Kirby, M. E., Feakins, S. J., Hiner, C. A., Fantozzi, J., Zimmerman, S. R. H., Dingemans, T., and Mensing, S. A.: Tropical Pacific forcing of Late-Holocene hydrologic variability in the coastal southwest United States, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 102, 27–38, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.08.005, 2014.
Lachniet, M. S., Burns, S. J., Piperno, D. R., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V. J., Moy, C. M., and Christenson, K.: A 1500 year El Niño/Southern Oscillation and rainfall history for the Isthmus of Panama from speleothem calcite, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D20117, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004694, 2004.
Lachniet, M. S., Bernal, J. P., Asmerom, Y., Polyak, V., and Piperno, D.: A 2400 yr Mesoamerican rainfall reconstruction links climate and cultural change, Geology, 40, 259–262, https://doi.org/10.1130/G32471.1, 2012.
Laird, K. R., Fritz, S. C., Maasch, K. A., and Cumming, B. F.: Greater drought intensity and frequency before 1200 A. D. in the Northern Great Plains, Nature, 384, 552–554, 1996.
Laird, K. R., Cumming, B. F., Wunsam, S., Rusak, J. A., Oglesbyi, R. J. F. S. C., and Leavitt, P. R.: Lake sediments record large-scale shifts in moisture regimes across the northern prairies of North America during the past two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100, 2483–2488, 2003.
Laird, K. R., Haig, H. A., Ma, S., Kingsbury, M. V., Brown, T. A., Lewis, C. F. M., Oglesby, R. J., and Cumming, B. F.: Expanded spatial extent of the Medieval Climate Anomaly revealed in lake-sediment records across the boreal region in northwest Ontario, Glob. Change Biol., 18, 2869–2881, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02740.x, 2012.
Lane, C. S., Horn, S. P., Mora, C. I., and Orvis, K. H.: Late-Holocene paleoenvironmental change at mid-elevation on the Caribbean slope of the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic: a multi-site, multi-proxy analysis, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 2239–2260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.04.013, 2009.
Ljungqvist, F. C., Krusic, P. J., Sundqvist, H. S., Zorita, E., Brattström, G., and Frank, D.: Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries, Nature, 532, 94–98, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature17418, 2016.
Loisel, J. and Garneau, M.: Late Holocene paleoecohydrology and carbon accumulation estimates from two boreal peat bogs in eastern Canada: potential and limits of multi-proxy archives, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 291, 493–533, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2010.03.020, 2010.
Lundeen, Z., Brunelle, A., Burns, S. J., Polyak, V., and Asmerom, Y.: A speleothem record of Holocene paleoclimate from the northern Wasatch Mountains, southeast Idaho, USA, Quatern. Int., 310, 83–95, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.03.018, 2013.
Mann, D. H., Heiser, P. A., and Finney, B. P.: Holocene history of the Great Kobuk Sand Dunes, Northwestern Alaska, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 21, 709–731, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(01)00120-2, 2002.
Marlon, J. R., Pederson, N., Nolan, C., Goring, S., Shuman, B., Robertson, A., Booth, R., Bartlein, P. J., Berke, M. A., Clifford, M., Cook, E., Dieffenbacher-Krall, A., Dietze, M. C., Hessl, A., Hubeny, J. B., Jackson, S. T., Marsicek, J., McLachlan, J., Mock, C. J., Moore, D. J. P., Nichols, J., Peteet, D., Schaefer, K., Trouet, V., Umbanhowar, C., Williams, J. W., and Yu, Z.: Climatic history of the northeastern United States during the past 3000 years, Clim. Past, 13, 1355–1379, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1355-2017, 2017.
Marsicek, J. P., Shuman, B., Brewer, S., Foster, D. R., and Oswald, W. W.: Moisture and temperature changes associated with the mid-Holocene Tsuga decline in the northeastern United States, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 80, 129–142, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.09.001, 2013.
Mason, J. A., Swinehart, J. B., Goble, T. J., and Loope, D. B.: Late Holocene dune activity linked to hydrological drought, Nebraska Sand Hills, USA, Holocene, 14, 209–217, 2004.
McCabe, G. J., Palecki, M. A., and Betancourt, J. L.: Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 4136–4141, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101, 2004.
McKay, N. P.: A novel multiproxy approach: the PAGES North America 2k working group., PAGES magazine, 22, 100, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.22.2., 2014.
Medina-Elizalde, M., Burns, S. J., Lea, D. W., Asmerom, Y., von Gunten, L., Polyak, V., Vuille, M., and Karmalkar, A.: High resolution stalagmite climate record from the Yucatán Peninsula spanning the Maya terminal classic period, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 298, 2992–3112, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2010.08.016, 2010.
Meese, D. A., Gow, A. J., Grootes, P., Stuiver, M., Mayewski, P. A., Zielinski, G. A., Ram, M., Taylor, K. C., and Waddington, E. D.: The accumulation record from the GISP2 core as an indicator of climate change throughout the Holocene, Science, 266, 1680–1682, 1994.
Meko, D. M., Woodhouse, C. A., Baisan, C. A., Knight, T., Lukas, J. J., Hughes, M. K., and Salzer, M. W.: Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River Basin, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L10705, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029988, 2007.
Michels, A., Laird, K. R., Wilson, S. E., Thomson, D., Leavitt, P. R., Oglesby, R. J., and Cumming, B. F.: Multidecadal to millennial-scale shifts in drought conditions on the Canadian prairies over the past six millennia: implications for future drought assessment, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 1295–1307, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01367.x, 2007.
Mock, C. J.: Climatic controls and spatial variations of precipitation in the western United States, J. Climate, 9, 1111–1125, 1996.
Munoz, S. E., Gruley, K. E., Massie, A., Fike, D. A., Schroeder, S., and Williams, J. W.: Cahokia's emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 6319–6324, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1501904112, 2015.
NCDC: Time bias corrected divisional temperature-precipitation-drought index, Documentation for dataset TD-9640, DBMB, NCDC, NOAA, Federal Building, Asheville, NC 28801-2733, 1994.
Neil, K., Gajewski, K., and Betts, M.: Human-ecosystem interactions in relation to Holocene environmental change in Port Joli Harbour, southwestern Nova Scotia, Canada, Quaternary Res., 81, 203–212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2014.01.001, 2014.
Nelson, D. B., Abbott, M. B., Steinman, B., Polissar, P. J., Stansell, N. D., Ortiz, J. D., Rosenmeier, M. F., Finney, B. P., and Riedel, J.: Drought variability in the Pacific Northwest from a 6000 yr lake sediment record, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 3870–3875, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1009194108, 2011.
Newby, P. E., Donnelly, J. P., Shuman, B. N., and MacDonald, D.: Evidence of centennial-scale drought from southeastern Massachusetts during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1675–1692, 2009.
Newby, P. E., Shuman, B. N., Donnelly, J. P., and MacDonald, D.: Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13 000 yrs near the Hudson River watershed, USA, Quaternary Res., 75, 523–530, 2011.
Newby, P., Shuman, B., Donnelly, J. P., Karnauskas, K. B., and Marsicek, J. P.: Centennial-to-millennial hydrologic trends and variability along the North Atlantic Coast, USA, during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4300–4307, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060183, 2014.
PAGES 2k Consortium: Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nat. Geosci., 6, 339–346, https://doi.org/10.1038/NGEO1797, 2013.
Pederson, G. T., Gray, S. T., Woodhouse, C. A., Betancourt, J. L., Fagre, D. B., Littell, J. S., Watson, E., Luckman, B. H., and Graumlich, L. J.: The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American cordillera, Science, 333, 332–335, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201570, 2011.
Pederson, N., Bell, A. R., Cook, E. R., Lall, U., Devineni, N., Seager, R., Eggleston, K., and Vranes, K. P.: Is an epic pluvial masking the water insecurity of the greater New York City region?, J. Climate, 26, 1339–1354, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1, 2013.
Peros, M. C. and Gajewski, K.: Pollen-based reconstructions of late Holocene climate from the central and western Canadian Arctic, J. Paleolimnol., 41, 161–175, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-008-9256-9, 2008.
Perren, B. B., Anderson, N. J., Douglas, M. S. V., and Fritz, S. C.: The influence of temperature, moisture, and eolian activity on Holocene lake development in West Greenland, J. Paleolimnol., 48, 223–239, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-012-9613-6, 2012.
Pinheiro, J. C., Bates, D., DebRoy, S., Sarkar, D., and R Core Team: nlme: linear and nonlinear mixed effects models, R package version 3.1-131, 2017.
Plank, C. and Shuman, B.: Drought-driven changes in lake areas and their effects on the surface energy balance of Minnesota's lake-dotted landscape, J. Climate, 22, 4055–4065, 2009.
Polk, J. S., van Beynen, P., Asmerom, Y., and Polyak, V. J.: Reconstructing past climates using carbon isotopes from fulvic acids in cave sediments, Chem. Geol., 360–361, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemgeo.2013.09.022, 2013.
Pribyl, P. and Shuman, B. N.: A computational approach to Quaternary lake-level reconstruction applied in the central Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA, Quaternary Res., 82, 249–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2014.01.012, 2014.
R Core Development Team: R: a language and environment for statistical computing, R foundation for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria, available at: http://www.R-project.org, 2009.
Rosenmeier, M. F., Hodell, D. A., Brenner, M., Curtis, J. H., and Guilderson, T. P.: A 4000 year lacustrine record of environmental change in the Southern Maya Lowlands, Petén, Guatemala, Quaternary Res., 57, 183–190, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2001.2305, 2002.
Routson, C. C., Woodhouse, C. A., and Overpeck, J. T.: Second century megadrought in the Rio Grande headwaters, Colorado: How unusual was medieval drought?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L22703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050015, 2011.
Routson, C. C., Woodhouse, C. A., Overpeck, J. T., Betancourt, J. L., and McKay, N. P.: Teleconnected ocean forcing of Western North American droughts and pluvials during the last millennium, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 146, 238–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.017, 2016a.
Routson, C. C., Overpeck, J. T., Woodhouse, C. A., and Kenney, W. F.: Three millennia of southwestern North American dustiness and future implications, Plos One, 11, e0149573, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149573, 2016b.
Schmieder, J., Fritz, S. C., Swinehart, J. B., Shinneman, A. L. C., Wolfe, A. P., Miller, G., Daniels, N., Jacobs, K. C., and Grimm, E. C.: A regional-scale climate reconstruction of the last 4000 years from lakes in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 30, 1797–1812, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.04.011, 2011.
Seager, R., Graham, N., Herweijer, C., Gordon, A. L., Kushnir, Y., and Cook, E.: Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 26, 2322–2336, 2007a.
Seager, R., Ting, M., Held, I., Kushnir, Y., Lu, J., Vecchi, G., Huang, H.-P., Harnik, N., Leetmaa, A., Lau, N.-C., Li, C., Velez, J., and Naik, N.: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Science, 316, 1181–1184, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601, 2007b.
Shapley, M. D., Ito, E., and Donovan, J. J.: Lateglacial and Holocene hydroclimate inferred from a groundwater flow-through lake, Northern Rocky Mountains, USA, Holocene, 19, 523–535, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683609104029, 2009.
Sheppard, P. R., Holmes, R. L., and Graumlich, L. J.: The “many fragments curse:” a special case of the segment length curse, Tree-Ring Bull., 54, 1–9, 1997.
Shin, S.-I., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Webb, R. S., Oglesby, R. J., and Barsugli, J. J.: Understanding the mid-Holocene climate, J. Climate, 19, 2801–2817, 2006.
Shinker, J. J.: Visualizing spatial heterogeneity of western US climate variability, Earth Interact., 14, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010EI323.1, 2010.
Shinker, J. J. and Bartlein, P. J.: Spatial variations of effective moisture in the western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041387, 2010.
Shuman, B., Pribyl, P., Minckley, T. A., and Shinker, J. J.: Rapid hydrologic shifts and prolonged droughts in Rocky Mountain headwaters during the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl042196, 2010.
Shuman, B. N. and Marsicek, J. P.: The structure of Holocene climate change in mid-latitude North America, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 141, 38–51, 2016.
Shuman, B. N., Henderson, A. K., Colman, S. M., Stone, J. R., Fritz, S. C., Stevens, L. R., Power, M. J., and Whitlock, C.: Holocene lake-level trends in the Rocky Mountains, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 28, 1861–1879, 2009a.
Shuman, B. N., Henderson, A. K., Plank, C., Stefanova, I., and Ziegler, S. S.: Woodland-to-forest transition during prolonged drought in Minnesota after ca. AD 1300, Ecology, 90, 2792–2807, https://doi.org/10.1890/08-0985.1, 2009b.
Shuman, B. N., Carter, G. E., Hougardy, D. D., Powers, K., and Shinker, J. J.: A north–south moisture dipole at multi century scales in the Central and Southern Rocky Mountains during the late Holocene, Rocky Mountain Geology, 49, 17–33, 2014.
Springer, G. S., Rowe, H. D., Hardt, B., Edwards, R. L., and Cheng, H.: Solar forcing of Holocene droughts in a stalagmite record from West Virginia in east-central North America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034971, 2008.
St. Jacques, J.-M., Cumming, B. F., and Smol, J. P.: A 900 year pollen-inferred temperature and effective moisture record from varved Lake Mina, west-central Minnesota, USA, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 27, 781–796, 2008.
St. Jacques, J.-M. S., Cumming, B. F., Sauchyn, D. J., and Smol, J. P.: The bias and signal attenuation present in conventional pollen-based climate reconstructions as assessed by early climate data from Minnesota, USA, Plos One, 10, e0113806, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0113806, 2015.
Stahle, D. W., Cook, E. R., Cleaveland, M. K., Therrell, M. D., Meko, D. M., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., and Watson, E.: Tree-ring data document 16th centry megadrought over North America, EOS, 81, 121–125, 2000.
Stansell, N. D., Steinman, B. A., Abbott, M. B., Rubinov, M., and Roman-Lacayo, M.: Lacustrine stable isotope record of precipitation changes in Nicaragua during the Little Ice Age and Medieval climate anomaly, Geology, 41, 151–154, https://doi.org/10.1130/G33736.1, 2013.
Steinman, B. A. and Abbott, M. B.: Isotopic and hydrologic responses of small, closed lakes to climate variability: hydroclimate reconstructions from lake sediment oxygen isotope records and mass balance models, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 105, 342–359, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2012.11.027, 2013.
Steinman, B. A., Abbott, M. B., Mann, M. E., Stansell, N. D., and Finney, B. P.: 1500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 109, 11619–11623, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201083109, 2012.
Stevens, L. R. and Dean, W. E.: Geochemical evidence for hydroclimatic variability over the last 2460 years from Crevice Lake in Yellowstone National Park, USA, Quatern. Int., 188, 139–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2007.11.012, 2008.
Stevens, L. R., Stone, J. R., Campbell, J., and Fritz, S. C.: A 2200 yr record of hydrologic variability from Foy Lake, Montana, USA, inferred from diatom and geochemical data, Quaternary Res., 65, 264–274, 2006.
Tian, J., Nelson, D. M., and Hu, F. S.: Possible linkages of late-Holocene drought in the North American midcontinent to Pacific decadal oscillation and solar activity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028169, 2006.
Trouet, V., Diaz, H. F., Wahl, E. R., Viau, A. E., Graham, R., Graham, N., and Cook, E. R.: A 1500 year reconstruction of annual mean temperature for temperate North America on decadal-to-multidecadal time scales, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 24008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024008, 2013.
Vose, R. S., Applequist, S., Durre, I., Menne, M. J., Williams, C. N., Fenimore, C., Gleason, K., and Arndt, D.: Improved Historical Temperature and Precipitation Time Series For U.S. Climate Divisions Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, J. Climate, 53, 12332–1250, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0248.1, 2014.
Wahl, E. R., Diaz, H. F., and Ohlwein, C.: A pollen-based reconstruction of summer temperature in central North America and implications for circulation patterns during medieval times, Global Planet. Change, 84, 66–74, 2012.
Webb, R. S., Anderson, K. H., and Webb, T.: Pollen response-surface estimates of late-Quaternary changes in the moisture balance of the northeastern United States, Quaternary Res., 40, 213–227, 1993.
Wise, E. K.: Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation dipole transition zone in the western United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07706, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009gl042193, 2010.
Wise, E. K.: Five centuries of US West Coast drought: occurrence, spatial distribution, and associated atmospheric circulation patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 2016GL068487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068487, 2016.
Wise, E. K. and Dannenberg, M. P.: Persistence of pressure patterns over North America and the North Pacific since AD 1500, Nat. Commun., 5, 4912, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms5912, 2014.
Wolfe, B. B., Edwards, T. W. D., Hall, R. I., and Johnston, J. W.: A 5200 year record of freshwater availability for regions in western North America fed by high-elevation runoff, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11404, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047599, 2011.
Woodhouse, C. and Overpeck, J.: 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2693, 1998.
Woodhouse, C. A., Russell, J. L., and Cook, E. R.: Two modes of North American drought from instrumental and paleoclimatic data, J. Climate, 22, 4336–4347, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2705.1, 2009.
Yu, Z. and Ito, E.: Possible solar forcing of century-scale drought frequency in the northern Great Plains, Geology, 27, 263–266, 1999.
Short summary
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large portions of North America over the past 2000 years, the Common Era (CE). In many records, the second millennium CE tended to be wetter than the first millennium CE. The long-term changes formed the background for annual to multi-decade variations, such as "mega-droughts", and also provide a context for amplified rates of hydrologic change today.
A synthesis of 93 published records reveals that moisture availability increased over large...
