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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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CP | Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
Clim. Past, 15, 307-334, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Clim. Past, 15, 307-334, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-307-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Feb 2019

Research article | 15 Feb 2019

Inconsistencies between observed, reconstructed, and simulated precipitation indices for England since the year 1650 CE

Oliver Bothe et al.
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Alexander, L. V. and Jones, P. D.: Updated precipitation series for the U.K. and discussion of recent extremes, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 1, 142–150, https://doi.org/10.1006/asle.2000.0016, 2000 (data available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/, last access: 1 February 2019). a, b, c, d
Allaire, J., Xie, Y., McPherson, J., Luraschi, J., Ushey, K., Atkins, A., Wickham, H., Cheng, J., and Chang, W.: rmarkdown: Dynamic Documents for R, r package version 1.10, available at: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=rmarkdown (last access: 3 February 2019), 2018. a
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E., Raible, C. C., Peter, T., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., and Schmutz, W.: Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 10951–10967, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-10951-2013, 2013.  a
Anet, J. G., Muthers, S., Rozanov, E. V., Raible, C. C., Stenke, A., Shapiro, A. I., Brönnimann, S., Arfeuille, F., Brugnara, Y., Beer, J., Steinhilber, F., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum, Clim. Past, 10, 921–938, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-921-2014, 2014. a
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Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree on past climate variations. Changing climates particularly impact local scales for which future changes in precipitation are highly uncertain. Here, we use information from observations, model simulations, and climate reconstructions for regional precipitation over the British Isles. We find these do not agree well on precipitation variations over the past few centuries.
Our understanding of future climate changes increases if different sources of information agree...
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