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Climate of the Past An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 6, issue 6
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Clim. Past, 6, 787–794, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-787-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  14 Dec 2010

14 Dec 2010

Bayesian analysis of rapid climate change during the last glacial using Greenland δ18O data

D. Peavoy1 and C. Franzke2 D. Peavoy and C. Franzke
  • 1Complexity Science Centre, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
  • 2British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK

Abstract. We present statistical methods to determine climate regimes for the last glacial period using three temperature proxy records from Greenland: measurements of δ18O from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2), the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) and the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) using different timescales. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is presented to infer the number of states in a latent variable model along with their associated parameters. By using Bayesian model comparison methods we find that a model with 3 states is sufficient. These states correspond to a gradual cooling during the Greenland Interstadials, more rapid temperature decrease into Greenland Stadial and to the sudden rebound temperature increase at the onset of Greenland Interstadials. We investigate the recurrence properties of the onset of Greenland Interstadials and find no evidence to reject the null hypothesis of randomly timed events.

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